The "New Normal" is falling (COLLAPSING) demand

Well, it surely is becoming clearer that the Xmas LLC of the major retailers was not a winning trade, i.e as predicted in our Blog of 11/25/11.   The consumer resistance to formerly successful marketing ploys is being fueled by the powerfully negative psychological effects of the Tsunami Super "Kondratieff" Long-Waves.

Those retailers that do not recognize this fundamental truth will continue to see their market share diminish - until their suppliers and vendors pull the plug.

The continued drop-off in demand, straight across all sectors of the US economy, will continue for the next 15 to 20 years, for three very specific reasons that we very clearly reveal in the inaugural issue of our Market Review and in a more cursory fashion on the “New Normal” page of our website @ www.polestarcomm.com.

In addition to those factors, the long-term negative impact of the "Kondratieff" Long-Waves (Two Major Ones Yet To Hit)  will continue to pressure and to force the fall in aggregate demand metrics for many years.

These new phenomena - especially the "Kondratieff" - will eventually be recognized, in spite of all the "Rosy Scenarios" that are spun, such as today's phony jobs report..

Stores Pay Price for Holiday Deals as Forecasts Slip

Bloomberg:By Ashley Lutz and Matt Townsend - Jan 6, 2012 9:44 AM ET

“Retailers are starting to pay the price for a discounting binge that was deeper and longer than ever -- especially stores that cater to middle-income shoppers.

Look no farther than American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (AEO) The clothier’s promotions helped boost sales in the past two months by 15 percent to $887 million. The teen retailer was forced to reduce its fourth-quarter profit forecast yesterday.

Ditto for Target Corp. (TGT), J.C. Penney Co. and Kohl’s Corp., which lowered their own fourth-quarter profit forecasts after pouring on the discounts.

“The retailers that cater to the middle class are struggling,” Alison Paul, retail sector leader at Deloitte Touche LLP in Chicago, said in an interview. “Some of them showed great volume numbers, but the proof is in the profit.”

…Meanwhile, stores that cater to lower-income shoppers are getting a boost as middle-class consumers trade down.

Discounters Ross Stores Inc. (ROST), which is based in Pleasanton, California, and Framingham, Massachusetts-based TJX Cos. snagged shoppers seeking discounts on apparel, home goods and accessories.

…One concern is the relatively paltry buying power of young adults, normally prodigious spenders in good times, said Pam Danziger, president at researcher Unity Marketing Inc.

“Middle-of-the-road retailers will continue to struggle to draw consumers in,” Danziger said. “They’re going to be hampered going forward because 20- and 30-somethings don’t have the money to spend.”

…December sales at luxury department store chains Saks Inc. (SKS) and Nordstrom Inc. (JWN) beat estimates by researcher Retail Metrics. Sales at Saks, based in New York, gained 5.8 percent, compared with an estimate of 5.5 percent growth. Nordstrom sales were up 8.7 percent, surpassing the estimated 4.7 percent gain.

“Luxury consumers are the heavy lifters in the economy, so it makes sense that businesses like Nordstrom and Saks will benefit from their excess spending,” said Unity’s Danziger, who is based in Stevens, Pennsylvania.

…..

“The middle class economy did not fall into place, and consequently, the middle-tier retailers didn’t either,” Niemira said. “On the surface sales were stronger, but then you ask the other questions and the picture isn’t great.”