Is it a Recovery, a Recession OR A Depression?

So folks, are we in a recovery?

Or, are we still in a recession? 

Or are we in a depression, that began with the Credit –Crisis 0f 2007/08?

And, we ARE still in it (whatever it is)?

I am from the days when economic indicators – like Aluminum and Steel production and ‘Car’ Loadings - were watched VERY intently by the best and most agile and most profitable of the ‘Lobby Lizards!’  For those of you who don’t know this term, it was used affectionately, by stock brokers, to identify those of their clients who habitually inhabited the ‘Board Rooms’ of Brokerage Houses, i.e. the ‘Lobby Lizards’ were the pre-computerized ‘day traders’ of yesteryear.

Well, I do KNOW what the ‘Lobby Lizards’ would have said and done on this news in the article that follows.

“SELL everything!”

Translation? 

The economy is sinking, and it will be either a Recession or a Depression!

But as you all do know by now, I do expect the artifical stock rallies that will accompany the “Great Deception of 2012” to afford one and all a most propitious time for the selling of everything.

So are you and your company ready for the VERY last buying-surge of the DCBF’s as catalyzed by the “Great Deception of 2012?”

More importantly, ARE you and your company ready for the resumption of the massive economic down-turn after that, when the second Tsunami Super Wave of the “Kondratieff” Long-Waves sweeps all before it?

You should be.

The kinds of numbers reported by Alcoa DON’T LIE!  Statistics may lie (Mark Twain), But plant closings and quarterly losses DON’T LIE!

 

Alcoa Posts First Quarterly Loss Since 2009

Bloomberg; By Sonja Elmquist - Jan 9, 2012 4:10 PM ET

“Alcoa Inc. (AA), the largest U.S. aluminum producer, reported its first quarterly loss in more than two years after prices tumbled for the lightweight metal.

….The loss is Alcoa’s first since the second quarter of 2009, which followed a slump in aluminum prices amid the global financial crisis. Aluminum fell in 2011, with the benchmark three-month price in London averaging 11 percent lower in the fourth quarter than a year earlier. Alcoa said last week it would close 12 percent of its smelting capacity amid falling prices.

“Excess global capacity, surplus stocks and expected slowdown from EU continues to weigh on aluminum prices, pressuring smelting profitability, Jorge Beristain, an analyst at Deutsche Bank AG who has a ‘‘hold’’ recommendation on the shares, said today in note before the earnings were released.

The company will cut its global smelting capacity by 531,000 metric tons. U.S. smelters at Alcoa, Tennessee, and Rockdale, Texas, will be affected, it said Jan. 5. …Alcoa is the first company in the Dow Jones Industrial Average to report earnings for the quarter. The stock slumped 44 percent last year, the second-biggest decline on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) after Bank of America Corp.’s 58 percent drop.

Alcoa is a fully integrated aluminum producer. It mines bauxite, an ore that contains aluminum, and refines it into alumina, the raw material used by aluminum smelters. As well as selling aluminum to industrial users, Alcoa makes products such as can sheet and components for cars and aircraft.

Aluminum supply has exceeded demand and inventories have soared, leaving some smelters unprofitable at current metal prices. Global output exceeded demand by 953,516 tons in the first three quarters of 2011, according to data (.ALSURP) compiled by Bloomberg Industries.