Setting up the "Dupes" to set up the "Dopes" on crashed RE

I very clearly outlined in my seminal Blog of 11/28/11 the dismal future for "Bubble" Crashed Commercial and Residential RE.  And in that Blog, I  identified the coming very paltry rise of “Bubble” crashed RE in 'absolute' terms and NOT in 'inflation adjusted' terms, which Blog I do urge all readers to review.  Better yet, subscribe to Polestar’s Market Review for 2011, to understand the full ramifications for all businesses in the "NEW NORMAL" that is ordained because of these things.

Here is a brief excerpt from the Blog of 11/28:

“…here we are given a very brief glimpse of 'the 'Talking Heads' talking points in the 'Coming Attractions' in the New Year and are made a witness to the incipient miraculous "Great Deception of 2012!”

The fantastical menagerie of horrors that we will be forced to watch on our “Funny Visions*” in the New Year is very nearly and neatly presaged by the totally sickening forecast for RE given by the boys at Goldman Sachs, that follows.

I say “sickening,” in specific regards to Goldman Sachs, because it was largely the team at Goldman Sachs that brought us the Crash of ALL Commercial and Residential RE and the Credit-Crisis of 2007-08.  That allegation is proven - ineluctably - by the wonderfully easy reading expose (3, I think) in the Rolling Stone by Matt Taibi about the “Giant Vampire Squid” that sucked the life out of America and said that they “were doing God’s work,” while they did it!

* "Funny Vision" (FV) is the much more appropriate appellation for  Tele Vision (TV), especially when one can read the truth regarding the events of the fall of 2008 that we watched unfold on our FV screens, while the former head of Goldman Sachs was selling the TARP  to the American public.  For the horrifying truth of those days, please read Matt Taibi's articles on this disgusting episode in the Rolling Stone. 

  

House Prices Are Finally Nearing A Bottom – But Don’t Look For A Rapid Recovery

Bloomberg; 12/6/11; By Henry Blodget | Daily Ticker – 16 hours ago

“Since the beginning of the house-price crash in 2007, analyst after analyst has predicted that "the bottom" in house prices is just around the corner - only to be wrong every time.

But now, finally, it looks as though house prices may actually be nearing a bottom.

Why?

Because, after falling nearly 35% from their 2007 peak, nationwide house prices are finally approaching "normal" levels on two key valuation measures: The "price-to-rent ratio," which measures house prices relative to what the houses might rent for, and the "price-to-income ratio," which measures house prices relative to average incomes.

Using the first ratio, economists at Goldman Sachs have concluded that national house prices will decline another 2.5% in 2012 and then bottom over the course of the following year.

…Importantly, after a price bubble similar to the one the U.S. just experienced, prices often don't stop at "average" levels on the way down. On the contrary, they often plunge straight through "fair value" and spend years below average levels. And that certainly could happen to house prices this time around.

But Goldman's economists believe house prices will level out in a year or two.  . . .

One of the reasons house prices are expected to bottom soon is that houses are currently more affordable than they have been in the past. But housing "affordability" is judged, in large part, on mortgage rates, and mortgage rates are currently near an all-time low. If and when the economy begins to recover in earnest, mortgage rates will likely rise, and, as they do, houses will become less affordable.

So it is likely that, even after they bottom, U.S. house prices will face headwinds for a long time.”

So, from this little bit of disgusting ‘tripe,’ on the MSM early morning of 12/6/11,  I will firmly and unabashedly predict that in the winter of 2012-13 Goldman Sachs WILL be leading the charge in telling all the “Dupes” to tell ALL of the “Dopes” to celebrate because their crashed “Bubble” priced Commercial and Residential RE is going back up.

BUT, I also firmly and unabashedly predict that they will very conveniently forget to mention to the “Dupes,” so that they don’t tell the “Dopes,” that the crashed RE is ONLY going up in ‘absolute’ terms and is still crashing in ‘inflation adjusted’ terms, which I assure one and all that it will be, as the resurging Long-Wave of the “Kondratieff” will be back in “Force” in 2013-14!