A BIG one is "Going Down!"

The following tragic implosion of Sears is seen by many to be specific and intrinsic to this retailer, but we do respectfully submit that the 8 noted negative affects are being (or WILL be) experienced by all retailers.  Furthermore, we do propose that these are the primary effects of the ongoing surge of the Tsunami Super wave of the unstoppable “Kondratieff” Long- Wave, that is even now breaking over everybody’s head!

This once premier - and still largest retailer - in the US is finally biting the dust; i.e. (#1) sales imploding in SHLD’s big box stores.

(#2) ALL SHLD’s “Bubble” priced Commercial Real Estate (that Lambert was “Betting the Farm” on) is still plummeting (and will for decades, see our New Normal tab) with the continued onslaught of the “Kondratieff.”

(#3) All small retailers do recognize the ‘falling sales’ effects of the “Kondratieff” over the last 4 and ½ years that is now taking SHLD down, but the US Government fails to measure or to report those numbers, leaving everyone to conclude that everything is just fine with the little guys. 

Well, we do have an ALERT:  the small and medium sized retailers are dying all over the country, except Washington DC. 

Would anyone hazard a guess why that is?  

(#4) All retailers recognized MUCH too late the power of the Internet, but there does exist a counter-measure to the Web that is unrecognized and that we do explain in some great detail in our inaugural issue of Polestars’ Market Review.  It is actually quite remarkable that NO one else among the many Marketing and Advertising companies has ever mentioned this “Achilles Heal” of Amazon & ALL Web-based retailers. 

(#5)  All retailers HAD better recognize this trend that will only viciously accelerate in the coming onslaught of the Super Tsunami “Kondratieff” Long-Wave that we do explain in a cursory fashion on our New Normal tab and in our Blogs.  For a much fuller and detailed explanation you need to subscribe to our Market Review.

(#6)  That Lambert would have implemented a cannibalization of the Sears brand  - now – is quite literally insane, as the Craftsman and Die Hard and Kenmore brands   were the ONLY consumer ”draws” left to SHLD. 

(#7) Now other than for the completely phony economic upturn and the contiguous and insanely manipulated PE expansion of the Equity Markets coming with the “Great Deception of 2012,” the next upturn in the US economy will be around the winter of 2037.  Do you think Paul Swinand of Morningstar Inc. knows this?  We don’t think he has a clue.

(#8) If only Mr. Swinand knew how right he got this.

Lambert of SHLD really needed us a couple of years ago. If he had known of us then and listened to us, he would never have made this Bad Bet on the “Bubble” priced RE of SHLD! But we still have valuable ideas that he should listen to, and we will try to reach him.

However, It does look like “Hasta la vista,” “Adios,” “Arrivederci,” “Sayonara,” and “So Long Dudes” to SHLD!

Is your company next? 

If you would like to avoid the onslaught of the coming Super Tsunami “Kondratieff” Long-Wave by preparing for it, rather than quite blissfully (for the next few months) ignoring it, then you need to subscribe to our inaugural Market Review, and quick.

Sears Plunges on Plans to Close as Many as 120 Stores

Bloomberg:By Cotten Timberlake - Dec 27, 2011 12:30 PM ET

Sears Holdings Corp. tumbled the most in 8 1/2 years after saying it will close as many as 120 stores, with a deeper-than-expected sales decline casting doubt on Chairman Edward Lampert’sefforts to turn around the chain.

Lampert has tried several strategies since merging Sears with Kmart in 2005, none of which have reversed falling sales. His latest push involves moving toward smaller stores and licensing the Craftsman, DieHard and Kenmore brands. As a result, the larger stores have received less investment and prompted customers to shop elsewhere, according to Gary Balter, an analyst with Credit Suisse Group AG in New York.

Same-store sales at the largest U.S. department store chain (#1) fell 5.2 percent in the eight weeks ended Dec. 25, Sears said today. By contrast, such sales in the department-store sector as a whole will climb an estimated 4 percent in November and December, compared with the same period a year ago, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers, a New York-based trade group.

… “There is not enough value in the real estate (#2) to do much with,” Balter said. “Who is going to buy the stores? There are no buyers. There is no one growing in U.S. retail.”

Hedge Fund

Lampert, who along with his hedge fund owns 60 percent of Sears, has presided over 18 consecutive quarters of declining sales (#3). Before today’s announcement, Sears had closed 171 of its large U.S. stores since 2005. Besides turning to smaller stores and franchising, Lampert also has been leasing space to other retailers and trying to boost Web sales(#4).

Instead of reviving growth, Sears has lost customers and market share to discounters (#5) such as Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) and Target Corp. (TGT), which are attracting budget-minded consumers.

…

The company is allowing other retailers to sell its DieHard, Craftsman and Kenmore (#6) products. Sears has also cut deals with such retailers as Costco Wholesale Corp. and Ace Hardware to sell Craftsman tools in their stores.

“If they can just create enough cash flow to get through the downturn (#7), at some point there is going to be a huge uptick in appliance sales,” Paul Swinand, an analyst with Morningstar Inc. in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. “They just have to make sure that when that happens they are not cut off at the knees, and that it doesn’t all go to Home Depot and Best Buy.”

… “The market is assuming there’s more bad news to come(#8),” Swinand said.