In our Market Review we covered in great detail the need of ALL Marketing and Advertising executives to be ever vigilant as to the ‘mood of the land.' And, quite unfortunately, the ‘mood of the land’ is virtually equivalent to the ‘mood of the markets.’ The only qualifier being; that one must be aware of which markets are affecting the ‘mood’ of the investor, consumer or public at large at any given time.
Then we identified the phenomena of a decades long continual ‘herding’ and ‘corralling’ of the ‘Sheeple’ into the wrong investments, thus enabling the easy ‘sheering’ of them. After the most recent years, the ‘Sheeple’ are ever more desperate to conserve their precious few remaining financial assets, that they still have possession of, after the “Internet/Stock Market Crash of 2001” and the RE Crash of 2005 – 2022 and the “Credit-Crisis of 2007-08,” that precipitated the Stock Market Crash of 2008-09.
These were all especially traumatic events but will pale in comparison to the next ‘Surprise” (that should be NO surprise, to anyone) on the horizon, i.e a combined “Bond Market and Stock Market Crash of 201(-).
As readers of that analysis, and of all these Blogs, are quite well aware, there will be, before that outsize event, a “Great Deception of 2012,” which will witness a supposedly miraculous ascension of all equities on the “Surprise” solution to the EU crisis that will miraculously materialize in the early part of 2012.
That “Deception” will be engineered in conjunction with the strengthening U.S. economy (on fudged CD, and other US agency’s, data) and is even now being set up with “the biggest rally in Treasuries since 2008,” as the professional financial type “Sheeple” are fleeing a supposedly hopeless Europe (which it is NOT) and buying US Treasuries (which are hopeless IN THE EXTREME) at ridiculously insane prices and yields!
Will you and your company be fooled by these apparitions of recovery, and then engage in exactly the wrong (and suicidal) Marketing and Advertising and Inventory Builds at EXACTLY the wrong time – like next summer and fall?
Stay tuned folks, this is getting positively funny, for those of us who have witnessed these "Dupe" and "Dope" moving financial crises type machinations in past decades and do KNOW the quite predictable outcomes.
U.S. Growth No Deterrent for Rally in Treasuries
Bloomberg; By Daniel Kruger and Liz Capo McCormick - Dec 12, 2011 5:37 AM ET
“As the concern around the euro zone continues to worsen, the money is flowing into the U.S.,” Terry Belton, the global head of fixed-income strategy at JPMorgan said. Photographer: Scott Eells/Bloomberg
The strengthening U.S. economy is proving no deterrent to the biggest rally in Treasuries since 2008, and America’s largest bank says it may get even better for bond investors.
U.S. government debt has returned 8.9 percent this year, including reinvested interest, Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes show. That compares with the 1.8 percent gain in the Standard & Poor’s 500 index of stocks when dividends are included. The rally in Treasuries accelerated since October even as reports showed improvements in everything from consumer confidence to jobless claims to manufacturing.
While government debt usually suffers as a strengthening economy spurs inflation and encourages investors to take bigger risks with their money, this recovery has been different because Europe’s sovereign debt crisis has elevated the stress in the global financial system, bolstering demand for the safest assets. …
Dollar Appreciation
The dollar has appreciated 8.5 percent since its low this year on Aug. 1...
Swap-Yield Correlation
Even with the moves, two-year interest-rate swap spreads, a measure of stress in the financial system, ended last week little changed at about 42 basis points. That’s more than 50 percent greater than its average this year.
… “In the environment that we’re in, which is fear of Europe, those fears are overwhelming any movement in the economy,” Thomas Roth, a senior trader in New York at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities USA Inc., said in a Dec. 8 telephone interview.
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Policy makers led by Chairman Ben S. Bernanke pledged on Aug. 9 that the central bank would hold its target rate for overnight loans between banks at about zero (This insane ZIRP is right now causing enormous financial dislocations and severe misallocations of capital that will eventually KILL us - all) for at least the next two years and said Sept. 21 they would extend maturities of the Fed’s Treasury holdings by purchasing $400 billion of long- term debt and selling an equal amount of shorter-term securities. That was after buying $2.3 trillion of government and mortgage securities from November 2008 through June 2011…The said Roth at Mitsubishi UFJ. … economy is “not strong enough to generate a big move up in yields given the fear that’s out there,”… “
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