No Change since 4/20 = Sell Everything!!!!!

G'Afternoon

Re: Reply to Inquiries >>> have I changed since BLACK SWAN Sell Alert of 4/20/20?

NO!!

The following Blog is still the recommended position = Sell everything and buy 7 to 12 month Puts!!

In addition to the China/USA relationship continuing to deteriorate and everything else being negative, the psychological and economic fundamentals creating a Quick Turn A'round in broad economy looks impossible.

Furthermore,  the Fed has now dug a BIG HOLE for itself by guaranteeing everything under the sun!

 

3rd Alert This Year and since 3/16/09

G'Mornin.

Re: 3rd Alert as 4th Black Swan Flies Into View.

I really don't enjoy doing this, but the continued dramatically negative effect of the 3rd Black Swan - Oil -  and now the ever closer arrival of the 4th Black Swan has forced my hand.

Let me explain: for the first time since 3/16/09 I am giving an all-out Alert that runs counter to my Technical OBV & KST Indicators that have functioned beautifully since 2009; and that is because for the second time since 3/16/09 I am giving an all out Alert to sell everything and to buy at least 5% or more in long-term Puts; and this is based on extraneous factors to the Broad Market indicators.

For, despite the fact that the market direction is still up -- by the criteria I have consistently followed --- I am no longer going to follow them:  that is because the world-wide confluence of extremely dangerous extraneous factors has outweighed purely market indicators.

Addendum to My Bible Blog of 4/18/20

G' Afternoon 

Re: Many wondered why I posted a Blog with Bible verses?

Or why commodity traders out there should be going LOOOONgggg Wheat; and the rest of us might want to buy a little extra flour?

Well, I did not do it cavalierly and they have not long to wonder.

Revelation prophesy of the 3rd >> Black Horse
"... And I beheld, and lo a black horse; and he that sat on him had a pair of balances in his hand. ⁶ And I heard a voice in the midst of the four beasts say, A measure of wheat for a penny, and three measures of barley for a penny; and see thou hurt not the oil and the wine. ...?

Measure   >> equals just enough to keep a man alive for one day
Penny       >> equals a denarius or a days wages  

Translation: the poor will barely stay alive if they work hard every day!

And...  
see thou hurt not the oil and the wine = rich do not suffer

Thus, working all day a man would have just enough to stay alive!

But the rich will not suffer!

Now, knowing these things prophesied 1,926 years ago, just watch what now happens in the world, because ...

China is just now gripped by unusually bizarre natural phenomena that will produce the results prophesied of in Revelation 6:6.

4/10/2020 Wheat Rust has destroyed all 13 million acres of planted wheat in 9 Provinces

Simultaneously 

Heavy Rains in all Chinese Southern Provinces have flooded tens millions of acres of wheat and destroyed those crops with fungi mediated wheat root rot

& 

Before these things >>> All Provinces had seen widespread Wheat Powdery Mildew and other unidentified diseases, producing fields of grains that had turned into fields of weeds**

& If all that weren't enough

4/20/2020 Massive Blizzards** just hit the Northern provinces, blanketing those farms with several feet of blowing snow and freezing all the grain crops.

Oh, Bye the bye, ABC gets it, too!
 
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/coronavirus-updates-warns-people-ready-living/story?id=70258498

Richard


** I have the video proof of all these things that has been filmed by Chinese farmers, who all predict the worst year ever.

Addendum to last Blog

G' Mornin 

Re: My alleged exaggeration of the bellicose nature of current China/US verbal exchanges?

Once again, to learn the truth you must go to International News Sources: and the inferred (conclusions drawn by the reader) antagonistic level of China/US rhetorical barbs is actually much more dangerous than indicated herein:

https://www.outlookindia.com/website/story/world-news-irresponsible-ill-intentioned-china-refutes-us-remarks-on-beijing-secretly-resuming-underground-nuclear-tests/350874

My Fears of new Black Swan Unwarranted?

Dear Folks,

G'Mornin (11:56 AM),

Re: Veracity of my posts.

I have -- with my Blogs of yesterday and today * -- been accused of exaggerating things and possibly worse.

So, I will let you see what I monitor and my strategic monitoring of such foreign communications has always led me to understand things in China** ahead of those who only listen or watch our MSM.

So among many CCP communications - I have read in last few days - here is just one:


Chinese CCP Official Communications: 

April 17th: Xilu net (Chinese Military Portal Site) East Theatre Operations: Cast Off Illusions, Be Prepared For War!

2020-4-17  11:29:05

What followed was a ten page directive to all Party Commanders, Military Officers, Party Comrades and Personnel  

Now did this Chinese CCP preliminary Call to Arms occur in a complete void? 

No, it did not: the publicly disseminated USA/China rhetoric has increasingly become antagonistic and has escalated: i.e. it's not the words it's the spirit of the words .



And, don't forget, by definition Black Swans arrive without any fanfare for the Masses; otherwise they would NOT be Black Swans; would they!

So, while I earnestly pray I am wrong, I believe holding long stock  positions in such an already strongly overvalued Stock Market at this Macro-Economic perilous moment is not prudent.

Ve'll all see!

Won't we.

Richard

* Edited 4:35 PM after this AM post.

** Including the vastly undercounted of actual dead in China due to their CCP Wuhan Virus; for, it is the real number that has panicked all the World Leaders of ALL the countries in the World; and it is not the silly numbers >>> you guys read about or listen to on the USA MSM!

3rd Alert This Year and since 3/16/09

G'Mornin.

Re: 3rd Alert as 4th Black Swan Flies Into View.

I really don't enjoy doing this, but the continued dramatically negative effect of the 3rd Black Swan - Oil -  and now the ever closer arrival of the 4th Black Swan has forced my hand.

Let me explain: for the first time since 3/16/09 I am giving an all-out Alert that runs counter to my Technical OBV & KST Indicators that have functioned beautifully since 2009; and that is because for the second time since 3/16/09 I am giving an all out Alert to sell everything and to buy at least 5% or more in long-term Puts; and this is based on extraneous factors to the Broad Market indicators.

For, despite the fact that the market direction is still up -- by the criteria I have consistently followed --- I am no longer going to follow them:  that is because the world-wide confluence of extremely dangerous extraneous factors has outweighed purely market indicators.

Namely, the 3rd Black Swan -- Oil -- has crashed to such levels that a market affect must be forthcoming; and the POTUS has verbally threatened to impose a tariff on all imported oil; and I believe that he will very likely do it.

However, it is the 4th Black Swan that now has overcome everything else in my calculations.

The 4th Black Swan is War, just as I indicated in my last post; but this War will not be with a third rate military power that possesses no offensive capabilities.

And the outcome -- even with  a very limited engagement immediately followed by negotiations -- would still have dreadfully devastating physical, moral and psychological effects and affects; from which I can only conclude all the World Stock Markets would suffer steep declines.

So, I believe that the better part of investment prudence is to sell everything here at 24,000 after having called for a Blow-Out Rally from 18,000 Dow Jones on 3/23 that, while not a Blow-Out Rally, did turn out to be bigger rally than any other Bear Market Rally since the 30's - at least.

I sincerely hope that I am wrong, but the visible and invisible signs portending the realization of the 4th Black Swan have become overwhelming over the last week.

Richard

Yet, Another Black Swan Appears On The Horizon!

 

 

Revelation 6:5-8 AKJV

 ⁴ And there went out another horse that was red: and power was given to him that sat thereon to take peace from the earth, and that they should kill one another: and there was given unto him a great sword.

⁵ And when he had opened the third seal, I heard the third beast say, Come and see. And I beheld, and lo a black horse; and he that sat on him had a pair of balances in his hand. ⁶ And I heard a voice in the midst of the four beasts say, A measure of wheat for a penny, and three measures of barley for a penny; and see thou hurt not the oil and the wine.

⁷ And when he had opened the fourth seal, I heard the voice of the fourth beast say, Come and see. ⁸ And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him. And power was given unto them over the fourth part of the earth, to kill with sword, and with hunger, and with death, and with the beasts of the earth.

 

Matthew 24:6-7 AKJV

 ⁶ And ye shall hear of wars and rumours of wars: 

see that ye be not troubled: for all these things must come to pass, but the end is not yet.  

⁷ For nation shall rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom: 

and there shall be famines, and pestilences, and earthquakes, in divers places.