3rd Alert This Year and since 3/16/09

G'Mornin.

Re: 3rd Alert as 4th Black Swan Flies Into View.

I really don't enjoy doing this, but the continued dramatically negative effect of the 3rd Black Swan - Oil -  and now the ever closer arrival of the 4th Black Swan has forced my hand.

Let me explain: for the first time since 3/16/09 I am giving an all-out Alert that runs counter to my Technical OBV & KST Indicators that have functioned beautifully since 2009; and that is because for the second time since 3/16/09 I am giving an all out Alert to sell everything and to buy at least 5% or more in long-term Puts; and this is based on extraneous factors to the Broad Market indicators.

For, despite the fact that the market direction is still up -- by the criteria I have consistently followed --- I am no longer going to follow them:  that is because the world-wide confluence of extremely dangerous extraneous factors has outweighed purely market indicators.

Namely, the 3rd Black Swan -- Oil -- has crashed to such levels that a market affect must be forthcoming; and the POTUS has verbally threatened to impose a tariff on all imported oil; and I believe that he will very likely do it.

However, it is the 4th Black Swan that now has overcome everything else in my calculations.

The 4th Black Swan is War, just as I indicated in my last post; but this War will not be with a third rate military power that possesses no offensive capabilities.

And the outcome -- even with  a very limited engagement immediately followed by negotiations -- would still have dreadfully devastating physical, moral and psychological effects and affects; from which I can only conclude all the World Stock Markets would suffer steep declines.

So, I believe that the better part of investment prudence is to sell everything here at 24,000 after having called for a Blow-Out Rally from 18,000 Dow Jones on 3/23 that, while not a Blow-Out Rally, did turn out to be bigger rally than any other Bear Market Rally since the 30's - at least.

I sincerely hope that I am wrong, but the visible and invisible signs portending the realization of the 4th Black Swan have become overwhelming over the last week.

Richard