It's the "Kondratieff," STUPID!

So, with all this bad news of ever-sinking aggregate demand, what do the economists have to say?

 

Besides ---- DUH?!?

 

Well, I invite all the ‘deaf,’ ‘dumb’ and ‘blind’ economists to read ALL our Blogs going back to last Fall and to read ALL the pages of our website at www.polestarcomm.com.

 

Better yet, they should subscribe to our Market Reviews and to our Quarterly Updates, then they would have some logical responses and accurate prognostications to make for a change, when they are asked:

“What is Happening?”  "Why is demand for everything, forever, collapsing - even sinking?"

 

The Brokerage House 'Lobby LIzards' of yesteryear could very easily tell the PEC (Professional Economist Class) "What is Happening," just from the startling facts contained in the second article about world wide demand for Aluminum!  

 

But then again those 'Lobby LIzards' didn't read or write economic textbooks for a living, they just traded the markets.  And I saw some of them make millions of real dollars - back in the 60's and 70's.  And that is something that the PEC could NEVER do, because they would have to be able to see ahead of their noses!  

   

Because, to turn a well-worn phrase from the 1992 Presidential election:

IT’s THE “KONDRATIEFF,”  STUPID!

 

San Bernardino Third California City to Choose Bankruptcy

By Michael B. Marois and Alison Vekshin - Jul 11, 2012 2:11 PM ET

James Quigg/The Victor Valley Daily Press/AP Photo

"San Bernardino’s City Council voted to become the third California municipality this year to seek bankruptcy protection after officials learned they might not have enough cash to pay workers.

"The council last night voted 4 to 2, with one abstention, to authorize filing under Chapter 9 of U.S. bankruptcy law. The city of 209,000, about 65 miles (105 kilometers) east of Los Angeles, is so broke it can’t make its payroll, interim City Manager Andrea Travis-Miller said.

A filing by San Bernardino would follow ones by Stockton, a community of 292,000 east of San Francisco, which on June 28 became the biggest U.S. city to go into bankruptcy. Mammoth Lakes, a mountain resort of 8,200, filed for protection from creditors July 3 saying it can’t afford to pay a $43 million legal judgment, more than twice its general-fund spending for the year.

San Bernardino was already struggling with declining tax revenue, growing worker costs, accounting discrepancies and an unemployment rate in the metropolitan area of almost 12 percent. “If the employees are not paid on Aug. 15, on Aug. 16 there will be a mass exodus of city employees,” City Attorney James Penman told the council before the vote.

“People are not going to work when they don’t get paid,” he said. “Most of our employees will not show up to work. That would include police, fire, refuse, everybody. The city will virtually shut down.” ….”

Alcoa Profit Seen Plunging 84% in Eighth Year of Surplus

Bloomberg; By Sonja Elmquist - Jul 9, 2012 9:20 AM ET

Alcoa Inc. (AA), the largest U.S. aluminum producer, may report an 84 percent decline in second-quarter earnings as the eighth straight year of surplus global production drives down the price of the metal.

While its downstream fabricating business that supplies components to customers such as Ford Motor Co. and Boeing Co. (BA) is profitable, Alcoa’s aluminum-smelting unit is struggling because of lower metal prices. The New York-based company announced in January production-capacity cuts of 12 percent. The primary metals unit will post an $86 million after-tax operating loss, said Brian Yu, a Citigroup Inc. analyst.

“There’s not much they can do on the upstream,” Yu, who’s based in San Francisco and recommends holding the shares, said in a July 6 interview. “The company continues to talk about their productivity gains, and I think it’s an important and notable effort on their side to lower cash cost, but not enough to offset the sharper drop in aluminum prices.” …

Auto Demand

Worldwide aluminum production rose 4.1 percent to 14.9 million metric tons in the first four months of 2012, beating consumption by 623,703 tons, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Output has exceeded usage each year since 2005, the data show. …

Rio Cutback

Alcoa’s quarterly earnings haven’t recovered since commodity prices tumbled after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. filed for bankruptcy at the height of the financial crisis in September 2008. Alcoa has posted four quarterly per-share losses since then and hasn’t recorded net income of more than 32 cents a share.

The company’s competitors are also suffering from the decline in aluminum prices. Rio Tinto Group, the world’s second- largest producer, said today it reduced output by 15 percent at a smelter in New Zealand after prices fell....

Russia’s United Co. Rusal, the largest producer, saw first- quarter profit slump 90 percent. Oslo-based Norsk Hydro ASA (NHY), the fifth-biggest, also posted a 90 percent decline and said last month it would shut 120,000 tons of capacity at its Kurri Kurri smelter in Australia, citing weaker demand and oversupply. …"

Airbus Scraps Target of 30 A380 Sales as Demand Dwindles

Bloomberg; By Andrea Rothman and Robert Wall - Jul 11, 2012 2:01 PM ET

Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg

“Airbus’s John Leahy said today at the Farnborough air show, “The big aircraft market has been slowing down.” Photographer: Matthew Lloyd/Bloomberg

“The big aircraft market has been slowing down,” Airbus Sales Chief John Leahy said in an interview at the Farnborough air show today. The target of 30 is “looking like a stretch at this point but when you set your goals at the beginning of the year you can’t change them. Let’s see how close we can get.”

Airbus has struggled with its flagship model, after cracks emerged in wing components and output in the first half only reached a third of the annual goal of 30 deliveries....

Slow Intake

Airbus’s only contract for the A380 this year is one for four aircraft worth $1.58 billion from Russia’s Transaero Airlines. That’s after Leahy had said Feb. 15 at the Singapore air (SIA) show that he expected to sell at least 30 of the planes, replenishing the backlog by matching the delivery target.

“They’ll struggle to meet that level next year as well,” said Mark Lapidus, managing partner at London-based Doric Asset Finance Ltd., which is the biggest lessor of the A380, with 18 ..."