Sunday, July 29, 2012

# III Its the "Kondratieff", STUPID!!!!


We really need add nothing to these news articles.  The economies of the world are ineluctably caught in the ‘Death Grip’ of the “Kondratieff’s” first wave - with yet two more waves coming! 

And no one amongst the PEC (Professional Economist Class) has caught on – yet! 

So, I guess we will be posting these “Kondratieff” alerts right into the coming ‘Event Horizon’ of the “Bond Bubble” explosion that will occur in roughly the Winter of 2014/15. 

For a preview of coming ‘Economic Horrors’ to the worldwide economy, and most especially to the devolving and dying US economy, just go to our “Home” page and to our “New Normal” web page at www.polestarcomm.com.

Are you and your company ready and prepared for the economic disasters that are now ordained - by the FED’s totally insane ZIRP - to sweep over all the world’s economies after the “Great Deception of 2012” has pulled all the ‘Sheeple’ into the world’s vastly over-priced stock markets?

Hiring Probably Limited by Slowing Growth: U.S. Economy Preview

Bloomberg; By Shobhana Chandra - Jul 29, 2012 12:00 AM ET
“The pace of hiring in July probably failed to reduce the U.S. jobless rate, which has been stuck above 8 percent for more than three years, economists said before a report this week. . . . 
A payroll increase of 100,000 workers would follow an 80,000 gain in June, according to the median forecast of 68 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News ahead of Labor Department figures Aug. 3
Reserve policy makers will meet ahead of the jobs report to decide whether additional stimulus is needed to combat a slowing economy as Europe’s debt crisis lingers. Companies such as Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT) are among those warning they’ll have to reduce headcounts later this year in the run up to the so-called U.S. fiscal cliff of automatic tax increases and government spending cuts.
“The pace of hiring is pretty lackluster,” said Omair Sharif, a U.S. economist at RBS Securities Inc. in Stamford, Connecticut. “It’s going to be a painfully slow grind lower on the unemployment rate. Firms have become cautious as the U.S. is slowing a fair bit and global markets are getting worse.”
… “Given that growth is projected to be not much above the rate needed to absorb new entrants to the labor force, the reduction in the unemployment rate seems likely to be frustratingly slow,” Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said in testimony to Congress this month. The central bank is “prepared to take further action as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery.”
A Commerce Department report July 27 showed gross domestic product grew at a 1.5 percent annual rate in the second quarter after rising at a 2 percent pace in the first three months of the year.
Americans remained cautious about spending in the final month of the quarter, Commerce Department figures may show on July 31….The soft outlook on employment is damping moods. The Conference Board’s index of consumer confidence fell in July for a fifth consecutive month, the longest period of declines since the first half of 2008, economists forecast before the July 31 report.
… Lockheed Martin, the world’s largest defense contractor, may have to dismiss about 10,000 of its 120,000 employees …“Our best judgment is that we may have to notify a substantially higher number of our employees beginning late in the third quarter of this year that they may not have a job if sequestration takes place,” Stevens said in July in prepared testimony for lawmakers. …

McDonald's and Coca-Cola hit by global slowdown

www.guardian.co.uk; Dominic Rushe; New York; Monday July 23, 2012 

McDonald's, the fast food giant that managed to ride out much of the Great Recession, has been bitten by the global slowdown.
The world's largest hamburger chain said Monday that its net income fell 4% in the second quarter as the dollar strengthened against global currencies. Same store sales have also begun to slow as austerity measures take their toll in Europe and China's economy slows.
The news was a rare slip for McDonald's, which has consistently beaten analysts expectations in recent years, and a worrying sign of trouble in the global economy
Same-store sales at McDonald's - sales at restaurants open at least 13 months - rose 3.7% globally in the second quarter. … But it was a sharp slowdown from the 7.3% increase McDonald's reported in the first quarter of 2012 …”

UPS Cuts 2012 Forecast as Slowing Economy Press Profit

Bloomberg; By Heather Perlberg on July 24, 2012
United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) (UPS), the world’s largest package-delivery company, cut its full-year forecast after a drop in international package sales dragged quarterly profit below analysts’ estimates.
….UPS, an economic bellwether because it moves goods ranging from financial documents to pharmaceuticals, projects the U.S. economy will grow 1 percent in the remainder of 2012. Premium- product growth will slow as customers opt for less expensive delivery methods, Chief Financial Officer Kurt Kuehn said on a call with analysts and investors.
“International volume is particularly weak,” Kevin Sterling, an analyst at BB&T Capital Markets in Richmond, Virginia, said in a telephone interview. …
…Companywide revenue climbed 1.2 percent to $13.3 billion, UPS said. Growth was slower than last quarter’s 4.4 percent expansion partly because of customers opting for less expensive shipment options.
“The deferred products are still leading the pack,” Logan Purk, an analyst at Edward Jones & Co. in St. Louis, said in a telephone interview. “Clients are still choosing the slower methods of delivery and that is impacting results in terms of yield.” … “

Monday, July 23, 2012

Unfortunately, Another Prediction IS Coming True


US & State Government Services to be Slashed

Please believe us when we say that, “We take absolutely no joy in reporting the following.”

Another of our prognostications is now definitely coming true that we made on our “New Normal” web page at www.polestarcomm.com.  First, what we posted to our website in October of last year that predicts some of the economic horrors ahead of all of us:  

 

“… (These will be the)  inevitable effects of the devolving dynamics of this RE “Bubble Bursting” conundrum (until its eventual wash-out) will be the primary causation of a years long interlinked series of psychologically depressing events:
#1 continued suppression of interest rates causing a continued punishment of savers …
#2 successive QE's will artificially inject capital into the equity markets fostering totally unwarranted rallies …
#3 continued inflation of food and energy prices… 
#4 continued inflation in the cost of and pricing of all professional services….
#5 continued inflation of all taxes to raise money from the strapped middle classes that will not be sufficient to fund the US Government's expenditures in a period of contracting incomes and GDP, congruent with horrifically expensive Wars and planned Wars. So that, there will then be an accelerated deflation of the quantity and quality of all Government services and a near severance of the US Government’s Social Safety Nets installed in the 30’s by a once caring and socially responsive National political class of Democrats…”

Now, the awful truth of what we saw then that is very soon coming to all America:

 

The following is from the World Socialist WEB:  www.wsw.org.

 

http://wsws.org/articles/2012/jul2012/task-j19.shtml

 

New report foreshadows post-election assault on pensions, social programs in US

www.wsws.org; By Jack Hood; 19 July 2012
“The State Budget Crisis Task Force―a body set up by former New York Lt. Governor Richard Ravitch and ex-Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker―has issued a report aimed at preparing public opinion for an unprecedented attack on social services and public employees after the November elections.
The findings, which detail the deepening financial crises facing state and local governments, claims there is no money to continue funding public services and employee wages and pensions at current levels. The report’s authors advocate huge cuts in health care and other services and the elimination of health and pension benefits won by public sector workers over generations of struggle.  


(I interrupt this article for a very personal observation and heart felt opinion:

When I was much younger, I was a card carrying member of two Unions (Int. Machinists & Teamsters), and I do know the social and economic value of the Union Movement in this country!  

And I can confidently and forthrightly say that without Unions the middle class of this country would never have arisen and If the Union movement in this country is obliterated {as these two clowns [Ravitch & Volcker] and their sycophants do wish}, then this country's Middle Class is really finished and much quicker than I ever thought.  

And, I do know - and do sadly predict - that this entire country will go down with the evisceration, the decimation and the eventual total destruction of the Middle Class, as these two clowns do quite apparently wish and plan for.  

And, I do know - and confidently predict - that the second wave and the third wave of the Super Tsunami "Kondratieff" Long-Wave will be much more catastrophic for the average American, than I had originally envisioned!)


While the report is presented as an unbiased, objective analysis, neither Ravitch nor Volcker are neutral observers. On the contrary, both are long-standing Democratic Party operatives tied to Wall Street and corporate America who oversaw ruthless attacks on the working class in the 1970s and 1980s. In addition, Ravitch in particular, has close relations with the AFL-CIO trade unions, which have collaborated in the attack on public employees.
“The fiscal crisis for states will persist long after the economy rebounds,” the New York Times wrote in a summary of the report, citing “rising health care costs, underfunded pensions, ignored infrastructure needs, eroding revenues, and expected federal budget cuts” as reasons for concern over long-term budget volatility.
Expenditures, the report claims, “are growing at rates that exceed reasonable expectations for revenues… The existing trajectory of state spending, taxation, and administrative practices cannot be sustained. The basic problem is not cyclical. It is structural.”
The report ignores the real causes of the fiscal crisis. In the nearly 100-page document nothing is said about how state, local, and federal government coffers have been emptied by corporate tax giveaways, multi-trillion dollar bank bailouts, and multiple wars and overseas interventions. The economic breakdown that followed the Crash of 2008 hardly merits a mention even though it led to a plunge in tax revenues as millions lost their jobs, home values plummeted and small businesses, starved of loans, went bankrupt.
The main target is public employee pensions, which have been neglected and underfunded by the states and have also seen a dramatic fall in assets as a result of the financial crisis that began with the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September, 2008. Wall Street is now hell bent on looting pension funds just as it has done the public treasury.
“Legally and politically, legislation directed at new hires is the easiest to achieve because new hires are invisible and, until hired, do not vote in union elections (where unionized),” the report explains. “[B]ut such modifications produce the smallest immediate savings and do not reduce unfunded liabilities.”
In other words, simply attacking new hires, a common tactic states and local governments have used with the willing collaboration of the unions, is not enough. Current workers and retirees who have been paying into pension funds for decades must be made to pay for state deficits, despite the fact that their share of national wealth has been on the decline for the previous four decades.
The report points to an aging population as a particular reason for long-term concern. The next two decades will each see 30 percent+ increases in the over-65 population, resulting, the report claims, in increased stress on Medicaid and pension funds. Rising Medicaid costs, which must be paid on account of Medicaid’s status as an entitlement program, “can no longer be absorbed without significant cuts to other essential state programs…this trend is likely to continue,” the report states.
A 7.2 percent average growth in Medicaid spending is expected over the next five years alone, which, when coupled with a 3.9 percent growth in revenue, will result in an annual budget gap of $23 billion for the states by 2017.
In pointing to these trends, the report echoes complaints made by sections of the American ruling elite―like their counter-parts in Greece and other European countries―that workers are simply living too long after retirement. According to this argument, the supposedly bloated health care and retirement benefits of workers not the near-criminal and criminal activities of the financial aristocracy, is bankrupting the country. Typical were the comments of Robert Benmosche, the multi-millionaire CEO of American International Group (AIG)―a company that received a publicly funded bailout―who recently said retirement ages in the US and Europe should be raised to 80 years old.
The task force sheds the usual crocodile tears for “hard choices” before praising both state governments controlled by both political parties for their attacks on public employees. Some of the deepest cuts have been made in New York, Illinois and California, all controlled by Democratic governors.
“Governments have been making changes. Between 2009 and 2011, 43 states either increased employee contributions or cut benefits or both. Additional changes will be needed.” These are not empty threats: this report foreshadows the strategic assault being planned by the corporate and political establishment.
While the Obama administration made trillions available to Wall Street banks, it has provided no bailout to state and local governments, which have eliminated 600,000 jobs since the Democratic president took office. On the contrary, the White House has deliberately starved the states and cities of federal funding in order to advance its agenda of slashing the jobs, living standards and working conditions of teachers and other public workers and privatizing public education and other assets.
In the coming months, the states will be required to foot more of the financial crisis, as the Obama Administration is expected to make heavy block grant cuts to state and local governments following the November election. The Obama Administration’s Budget Control Act of 2011, according to the Congressional Budget Office, mandates that “discretionary spending for education, transportation, and housing programs benefiting state and local governments will shrink by 35 percent between 2012 and 2022. [The CBO] project[s] that selected income security programs, primarily those benefiting children, will decline by 35 percent during the same period.”
Ten percent cuts to federal block grants would also result in a $60 billion annual loss for state and local governments. This amount is “nearly twice the size of the combined tax increases that states enacted for 2008 through 2011,” the report claims.
These cuts are being made to offset a 47 percent mandatory increase for entitlement programs. The aging population met with high unemployment and the resulting loss in employer-provided health insurance plans has led to a drastic increase in the Medicaid and Medicare rolls.
Though the health care benefits and retirement savings of millions of public employees is up for the taking, the trillions obtained by the banks, Fortune 500 companies, and financial speculators in the aftermath of the financial crisis are not in play. More than 90 percent of the income produced in the post-2010 “recovery” went to the top 1 percent, but this huge sum is off-limits to settle state and local budgets.
The findings and recommendations of the Task Force are unsurprising given its architects. The Volcker and Ravitch are long-time enemies of the working class. Volcker, a life-long Democrat and former Chase Manhattan Bank executive, served as Chairman of the Federal Reserve under Presidents Carter and Reagan. In 1981, he drove interest rates to a record 20 percent, precipitating what was up to then the worst downturn since the Great Depression. Mass unemployment, factory closings and union busting were used to batter down the resistance of the American working class, which had repeatedly defied attacks on living standards through militant strikes by coal miners, auto workers and other sections of workers in the 1970s.
Volcker praised Reagan’s smashing of the 1981 PATCO strike as the most important action “the administration took in helping the anti-inflation fight.” The firing of 13,000 air traffic controllers, Volcker gushed, transformed “the climate of labor-management relations” both “profoundly” and “constructively.” He most recently was appointed by President Obama to Chair the Economic Recovery Advisory Board, a post that he held from 2009 to 2011.
Richard Ravitch’s past is similarly unambiguous. A former unelected Lt. Governor of New York, Ravitch served as an adviser to former New York Governor Hugh Carey during the “bailout” of New York City in 1975-76. Using the threat of municipal bankruptcy Ravitch helped design a plan that mandated draconian cuts to social services, eliminated of tens of thousands of city workers’ jobs and slashed wages for remaining employees. It also led to the first-ever tuition fees for the City University of New York students along with a sharp increase in transportation fares.
Ravitch worked closely with then teachers’ union chief Albert Shanker and other labor officials to use workers’ pension funds to purchase $2.7 billion in city debt. The plan also created the Financial Control Board, which gave banks the power to veto city spending measures and labor contracts.
During the 11-day New York City transit worker walkout Ravitch served as strikebreaker in chief as Chairman of the Metropolitan Transit Authority. Before his stint as Lt. Governor, Ravitch―a wealthy real estate developer―sat on the Executive Committee of the AFL-CIO Housing Investment Trust’s Board of Trustees, a joint business venture of the trade unions.
The additional nine members of the task force are not politically distinct from Volcker and Ravitch. They include Nicholas F. Brady, former Secretary of the Treasury under Presidents Reagan and Bush; Peter Goldmark, the former budget director of New York State; Alice Rivlin, former Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve under the Clinton Administration; and former Secretary of Labor, Treasury, and State, George P. Shultz.
The bipartisan character of the Task Force points to the vicious attacks being prepared against public employees and essential social service, regardless of whether President Obama or his Republican challenger Mitt Romney wins in November.”

Wednesday, July 18, 2012

# II - Its the "Kondratieff," STUPID!!


If this were a game show between the PEC (Professional Economist Class) and the rest of us who are trying to survive out here in the hinterlands, and the first question asked was:

"What is wrong with the US economy that aggregate demand is persistently falling?"

Then the PEC  would be struck by dumbfound silence; for, they are totally non-plussed, confused and befuddled.

While those of us who know our economic history, and understand that there do exist generational and secular cycles that ultimately can NOT be obviated by the FED, would correctly answer:

Its the "Kondratieff," STUPID!!


All of the following and much worse aggregate economic data and indicators are directly attributable to JUST the first of three waves of the Super Tsunami “Kondratieff” Long-Wave that swept all throughout the world in 2007-2009.

Are you and your company ready for wave #2 of the “Kondratieff” that will engulf the entire world after the “Great Deception of 2012” has run its course?

Gross Says U.S. Nearing Recession as BlackRock Sees Fed Step

Bloomberg; By Shamim Adam and Masaki Kondo - Jul 17, 2012 5:11 AM ET
Bill Gross, who runs the world’s largest mutual fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., said the U.S. is approaching a recession as BlackRock Inc. (BLK) expects the Federal Reserve to take more steps to support growth.
…That followed data earlier this month showing American employers added fewer-than-estimated workers to payrolls. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) and Deutsche Bank AG cut forecasts for U.S. growth.
…The U.S. is “approaching recession when measured by employment, retail sales, investment, and corporate profits,” Gross, who manages the $263 billion Pimco’s Total Return Fund (PTTRX), wrote on Twitter yesterday. ….

Everything ‘Weaker’

“Pretty much everything is way weaker,” Ewen Cameron Watt, chief investment strategist at the BlackRock Investment Institute, told reporters today in a teleconference from London. “There will be some more action from the Federal Reserve, but not probably dramatic action in a sense of massive stimulus.”
…Deutsche Bank chief U.S economist, Joseph LaVorgna, reduced his forecast to 1 percent from 1.4 percent.
“The sharp downward momentum in the economy” increases the probability of further Fed easing either in the form of another round of quantitative easing or other nonconventional measures, LaVorgna wrote in a note yesterday. …”

Retail Purchases in U.S. Unexpectedly Decrease 0.5%

Bloomberg; By Alex Kowalski - Jul 16, 2012 4:30 PM ET
The 0.5 percent drop followed a 0.2 percent decrease in May, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. The decline exceeded the most pessimistic forecast in a Bloomberg News survey that called for a median 0.2 percent gain in sales. Other r


Department figures showed today in Washington. The decline exceeded the most pessimistic forecast in a Bloomberg News survey that called for a median 0.2 percent gain in sales. Other reports today showed manufacturing in the New York region picked up this month and U.S. inventories increased in May.
The retail figures prompted economists at Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Credit Suisse to lower their forecasts for economic growth in the second quarter.
….
“People are just pulling back, and you’re not likely to see a significant pickup from here,” said Michael Carey, chief economist for North America at Credit Agricole CIB in New York. “This was certainly a slowdown from the first quarter.”
American employers added fewer workers to payrolls than forecast in June and the jobless rate stayed at 8.2 percent, a report from the Labor Department showed on July 6.
… “A few members expressed the view that further policy stimulus likely would be necessary to promote satisfactory growth in employment and to ensure that the inflation rate would be at the Committee’s goal,” according to the record of the Federal Open Market Committee’s June 19-20 gathering released July 11 in Washington. …”

 

U.S. Stocks Fall as Economy Concern Offsets Energy Rally

Bloomberg; By Inyoung Hwang - Jul 16, 2012 2:50 PM ET


“U.S. stocks fell, dragging the Standard & Poor’ 500 Index lower for the seventh time in eight days, after the International Monetary Fund cut its global economic forecast and retail sales unexpectedly dropped.
General Electric Co. lost 1.1 percent, sending industrial shares to the biggest drop among 10 groups in the S&P 500, after Morgan Stanley reduced its recommendation on the stock. Equities pared losses as energy companies rose with the price of oil while Visa (V) Inc. and MasterCard Inc., the world’s biggest payment networks, rose at least 1.9 percent after agreeing to a settlement of at least $6.05 billion in a price-fixing case.
The S&P 500 declined 0.1 percent to 1,355.38 at 2:49 p.m. in New York, trimming a drop of as much as 0.6 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 27.82 points, or 0.2 percent, to 12,749.27 today. …”

Tuesday, July 17, 2012

Poverty will be the New Normal in America


Once prosperous middle-class life in America is rapidly being replaced by the ‘Dark Side’ of subsistence living. 

I need add nothing to the following excerpted articles, except to say that for a full review of what lies ahead for all Americans, everyone should go read what we projected on our New Normal page at www.polestarcomm.com, as the Super-Tsunami “Kondratieff” Long-Waves   continually batter the American and World economies.

Have you warned your company of the near certainty of a devolving American economy for the next several years, caused  by a continually eroding GDP, upward ratcheting inflation, drought impacted economics, disappearing jobs and aggregate demand evaporation?

Has your company calibrated your inventory builds and composition and your Marketing Campaigns for the Roller Coaster ride that we are all in for?  

And, most importantly, have you prepared your company for the economic effects of an exploding 'Bond Bubble' in a just couple years, when the FED's ZIRP is forcefully abandoned and interest rates do skyrocket?    

The Ph.D. Now Comes With Food Stamps

Melissa Bruninga-Matteau, a medieval-history Ph.D. and adjunct professor who gets food stamps: "I've been able to make enough to live on. Until now."
"I am not a welfare queen," says Melissa Bruninga-Matteau.
That's how she feels compelled to start a conversation about how she, a white woman with a Ph.D. in medieval history and an adjunct professor, came to rely on food stamps and Medicaid. Ms. Bruninga-Matteau, a 43-year-old single mother who teaches two humanities courses at Yavapai College, in Prescott, Ariz., says the stereotype of the people receiving such aid does not reflect reality. Recipients include growing numbers of people like her, the highly educated, whose advanced degrees have not insulated them from financial hardship.
"I find it horrifying that someone who stands in front of college classes and teaches is on welfare," she says.
..."The media gives us this image that people who are on public assistance are dropouts, on drugs or alcohol, and are irresponsible," she says. "I'm not irresponsible. I'm highly educated. I have a whole lot of skills besides knowing about medieval history, and I've had other jobs. I've never made a lot of money, but I've been able to make enough to live on. Until now."

An Overlooked Subgroup

A record number of people are depending on federally financed food assistance. Food-stamp use increased from an average monthly caseload of 17 million in 2000 to 44 million people in 2011, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Web site. Last year, one in six people—almost 50 million Americans, or 15 percent of the population—received food stamps.
…Of the 22 million Americans with master's degrees or higher in 2010, about 360,000 were receiving some kind of public assistance, according to the latest Current Population Survey released by the U.S. Census Bureau in March 2011. In 2010, a total of 44 million people nationally received food stamps or some other form of public aid, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
. . . Nevertheless, the percentage of graduate-degree holders who receive food stamps or some other aid more than doubled between 2007 and 2010.
During that three-year period, the number of people with master's degrees who received food stamps and other aid climbed from 101,682 to 293,029, and the number of people with Ph.D.'s who received assistance rose from 9,776 to 33,655,
…"It's gone beyond the joke of the impoverished grad student to becoming something really dire and urgent," says Ms. Kelsky. "When I was a tenured professor I had no idea that the Ph.D. was a path to food stamps."

...Eliott Stegall, a white, 51-year-old married father of two, teaches two courses each semester in the English department at Northwest Florida State College, in Niceville, Fla.

Mr. Stegall is a graduate student at Florida State University, where he is finishing his dissertation in film studies…His wife is starting a two-year, online master's degree program in criminology offered by Florida State. They receive food stamps, Medicaid, and aid from the Women, Infants, and Children program (known as WIC).
Mr. Stegall has taught at three colleges for more than 14 years. He says he has taught more than two dozen courses in communications, performing arts, and the humanities and he has watched academic positions in these fields nearly disappear with budget cuts. When he and Ms. Stegall stepped inside the local WIC office in Tallahassee, Fla., where they used to live, with their children in tow, he had to fight shame, a sense of failure, and the notion that he was not supposed to be there. After all, he grew up in a family that valued hard work and knowledge. His father was a pastor and a humanities professor, and his mother was psychology professor.
"The first time we went to the office to apply, I felt like I had arrived from Eastern Europe to Ellis Island," he says. "The place was filled with people from every culture and ethnicity. We all had that same ragged, poor look in our eyes."
…"I tend to look at my experience as a humanist, as someone who is fascinated by human culture," he says. "Maybe it was a way of hiding from the reality in which I found myself. I never thought I'd be among the poor."
Mr. Stegall has supplemented his teaching income by working odd jobs. He painted houses until the housing crisis eliminated clients. He and his wife worked as servers for a catering company until the economic downturn hurt business. And they cleaned condos along Destin beach. They took the children along because day care was too expensive.
"I'm grateful for government assistance. Without it, my family and I would certainly be homeless and destitute," he says. "But living on the dole is excruciatingly embarrassing and a constant reminder that I must have done something terribly wrong along the way to deserve this fate."
As he sat in the WIC office with his family, Mr. Stegall blamed himself. He made a choice, he says, to earn a graduate degree even as he saw the economy collapsing, the humanities under assault, and the academic job market worsening.
"As a man, I felt like I was a failure. I had devoted myself to the world of cerebral activity. I had learned a practical skill that was elitist," he says. "Perhaps I should have been learning a skill that the economy supports."

'Dirty Little Secret'

When asked if they believe that full-time faculty, administrators, and scholarly associations know that adjuncts are receiving government assistance, scores of graduate students and adjuncts who get public benefits gave mixed responses. In an informal questionnaire The Chronicle distributed through AFT Higher Education, the New Faculty Majority, and other groups that represent adjuncts, the aid recipients said that some of those people know, some don't know, some don't want to know, and some seem not to care.
…."It's the dirty little secret of higher education," says Mr. Williams of the New Faculty Majority. "Many administrators are not aware of the whole extent of the problem. But all it takes is for somebody to run the numbers to see that their faculty is eligible for welfare assistance."
…Some leaders of scholarly associations say they are surprised to hear of graduate-degree holders being on public assistance.
James Grossman, executive director of the American Historical Association, said in an e-mail that he consulted with his staff, and "nobody has ever heard of this among our members or other historians."

Thirty-nine percent of all welfare recipients are white, 37 percent are black, 17 percent are Hispanic, and 3 percent are Asian, according to data from Aid to Families With Dependent Children. The majority of the dozens of graduate-degree holders on aid who responded to The Chronicle questionnaire are also white.
…Lynn, a 43-year-old adjunct professor at two community colleges in Houston, who is on food stamps and Medicaid and doesn't want to give her surname, says, "People don't expect that white people need assistance," she says. "It's a prevalent attitude. Applying for food stamps is even worse if you're white and need help."
Kisha Hawkins-Sledge, who is 35 and a black single mother of 3-year-old twin boys, earned her master's degree in English last August. She began teaching part-time at Prairie State College, Moraine Valley Community College, and Richard J. Daley College of the City Colleges of Chicago while in graduate school, and says she made enough money to live on until she had children. She lives in Lansing, Ill.
"My household went from one to three. My income was not enough, and so I had to apply for assistance," she says. She now receives food stamps, WIC, Medicaid, and child-care assistance….”

About 3 Million College Degree Holders in New York Are Suffering With Food Crisis

Valuewalk.com; January 13, 2012; By Sheeraz Raza
Through various surveys conducted by the Food Bank for New York City a new report was produced regarding 3-million college educated New Yorkers who have reported difficulties in affording food.
...The percentage of New York City residents with annual household incomes between $50,000 to $74,999, and annual household incomes of $75,000 or more, who reported difficulty affording food increased from 26 percent to 32 percent, and from 13 percent to 16 percent, respectively, between 2010 and 2011.
The Food Bank says that the New Yorkers are purchasing fewer essential items like dairy, meat and fresh fruits and turning to soup kitchens and food stamps to overcome this difficulty...."

 

Food stamp use at military commissaries up sharply in four years

By Seth Robbins; Stars and Stripes; Published: November 15, 2011

Nearly $88 million worth of groceries were purchased using food stamps at military commissaries in 2011, more than double the amount spent in 2008, according to the Defense Commissary Agency Laura Rauch/Stars and Stripes

Laura Rauch/Stars and Stripes

BAUMHOLDER, Germany — Food stamp purchases at military commissaries have nearly tripled during the last four years, according to Defense Commissary Agency figures.
The agency reports that nearly $88 million worth of food stamps were used at commissaries nationwide in 2011, up from $31 million in 2008.
… “I suspect that we are talking about more recently [separated],” she said, “who have gotten out of the military and found out that it’s not so easy to find a job in the civilian sector.”
Nearly 860,000 veterans filed for unemployment benefits last month, of whom more than one-quarter are young veterans, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics….
 “I would be willing to suspect they have been demobilized, they are off active duty, but their civilian job isn’t there anymore,” she said.
…The 2003 study showed that the majority of active-duty servicemembers who qualified for food stamp assistance lived in base housing. Housing is not calculated as part of servicemembers’ income, and many would not have qualified for the program had the cost of housing been included, the study found.
“The fact that some enlisted members and even a few officers received (food stamps) was more a result of larger household sizes and living in government quarters than an indicator of inadequate military compensation,” said Lainez.
large families, said Lainez.
….The steep economic downturn began in the fall of 2008, and the sharpest year-to-year growth in food stamp usage at commissaries was from 2008 to 2009, increasing nearly 70 percent to $53 million.
….During this time, civilian use of food stamps also increased significantly, from about $35 billion to more than $50 billion. In 2010, the Dept. of Agriculture reported there were $65 billion worth of food stamp purchases nationwide.
….John Smith, a spokesman for Operation Homefront, a non-profit organization that provides emergency assistance to military families, said his organization has seen the amount of food assistance it provides to military families double since 2008. . . .”

 Items that can be purchased using food stamps:

-- breads and cereals;
-- fruits and vegetables;
-- meats, fish and poultry; and
-- dairy products.
-- seeds and plants which produce food for the household to eat.
Source: USDA.gov

Chart showing the amount of food stamp purchases, officially called the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, at base commissaries nationwide:

 2008: $31,146,015
2009: $52,954,938
2010: $72,831,952
2011: $87,837,643
Source: the Defense Commissary Agency


Poll: Veterans Looking for Food Help

Wall Street journal; By LANA BORTOLOT; November 10, 2011 

About one in four New York City households with military veterans has trouble putting food on the table, according to a poll commissioned by the nation's largest food bank.
Army veteran Percy Fleming outside St. John's Bread and Life.
Veterans in such households are eating less frequently and choosing to pay other living expenses—rent, utilities, medical care and transportation—over food, which they get more frequently from food pantries and via government assistance, according to the poll by the Marist Institute for Public Opinion….
The survey "paints the picture of what survival looks like," said Margarette Purvis, president and CEO of the Food Bank for New York City, which commissioned the poll. "Survival was supposed to be about getting them home to their families. But their second level of survival is how to be fed and have dignity."
Set to be released publicly on Thursday, the study is the first conducted by a hunger organization to look at the food problems of veterans….The results portray veterans as worried about their ability to buy food, with nearly one in three concerned that they will have to turn to food stamps or government assistance. About one in 10 didn't have enough money to buy food in the past year, the report said.
Of all city households having trouble affording food, 9% were veteran households.
Veterans advocates said military men and women are particularly vulnerable to being unemployed upon their return home.
In the past year, 15% of Iraq War veterans in New York state were unemployed, while in New York City, veterans aged 18 to 34 had a 13% jobless rate, according to federal statistics.
"Anecdotally, our members are reporting these issues," said Matt Gallagher, a former Army captain who served 15 months in Iraq and now works at Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America. "Unemployment has been our top legislative priority, but there have been reports of hunger concerns and it's on our radar."
…The survey comes as organizations serving the poor have begun tracking the number of veterans they serve. At St. John's Bread and Life, 22% of those who use the soup kitchen are veterans  …
The River Fund Food Pantry in Richmond Hill, Queens, has seen the number of veterans it serves jump to 17% from 10% in 2009, said the pantry's program director, Otto Starzmann.
…Percy Fleming, a 46-year-old Army veteran who gets food from St. John's Bread and Life, said the pantry is helpful, but veterans need long-term help.
"I think our vets will come home to a lot of issues," Mr. Fleming said. "They are going to come home after seeing all that death and destruction—and they can't find a job."
Christine Quinn, speaker of the New York City Council, said the council would take up an initiative to connect veterans to food organizations….”

Saturday, July 14, 2012

MSM is setting up the Real Estate Ten Pins!!!


Well Folks, another  of our many predictions is now coming true.

For, today we provide absolute proof in the following MSM ‘teaser’ that we should all get ready for the MSM PORE (Psy Ops Reporting & Editorializing) campaign of the 21st Century, when the poor befuddled 'Sheeple' will be stampeded back into, the still vastly over-priced, Real Estate sector. 

For, within just six months from now – exactly when and as we predicted last year - the MSM is going to crank up a MONSTER Psy-Ops campaign to coerce the poor ‘Sheeple’ to believe that the next Big Wave of the fifty-year Real Estate Bubble is imminent and that they better buy the still vastly over-priced Real Estate before it starts running again.

You don’t think the MSM does such things, you say?

Well just take a look at the 1st “Related Article” within the body of the full article below, my friend! 

And, as we predicted last Fall the stupidly blind and congenitally greedy ‘Sheeple’ will jump right back into Real Estate in all of 2013 into late 2014.

Then, they will be utterly slaughtered when the second wave of the Super Tsunami “Kondratieff” Long-Wave bursts the BIGGEST BUBBLE of all recorded history – THE BOND BUBBLE in the Winter of 2014 to 2015, which will horribly ratchet interest rates THROUGH THE EVER-LOVING roof and crash all Real Estate for the next thirty years.

Are you and your company (namely, your multi-year production & inventory levels and Marketing Campaigns) ready for the ‘Roller Coaster’ ride of your life.  Remember, that this upcoming boom in consumerism gone mad will finally exhaust the credit fueled ‘Buying Power’ of the DCBF’s (Debt Crazed Buying Fanatics) for the next twenty to thirty years!

If you have not properly crafted and positioned your company’s inventory and marketing campaigns for the huge UP and then the utter Crash of the DCBF’s, maybe you had better take a look at what the FED’s absolutely insane ZIRP strategy has ordained to happen over the next three years by subscribing to our Market Review and Quarterly Updates!

For, we do confidently predict that, just a couple of years from now, many thousands of companies are going to join those we list at the bottom of our Home page at www.polestarcomm.com that were completely blind-sided by ONLY the first wave of the “Kondratieff” in 2007/08. 

Why three waves?

Stalin had Nicolai Kondratieff shot in the back of the head - before Nicolai could reveal (the OGPU confiscated five other Manuscripts from his wife that were never seen again) what we discovered many years ago.  Namely there are three waves of the “Kondratieff” and there are very specific generational and economic reasons for them.

And, unfortunately for the United States of America and the entire world wide economy, the FED’s ZIRP is evidence that Bernanke is falling right into the trap laid by the psychological vortex dynamics of wave #1, which conditions the precedent economic elements that do firmly set in motion the economic tectonics that precipitate wave #2, of the “Kondratieff Three  Waves."

The lead sub-heading ("The housing market has turned - at last") of the following article confirms all my attestations of what the MSM PORE really is intended to foster in the subconscious of the poor befuddled 'Sheeple!'   

For, only a true 'marketer' would recognize that this one sentence is really so very ingeniously crafted that I was immediately reminded of the inquisitor's endlessly (and horrifyingly accentuated with great pain) repetitive question of Dustin Hoffman in Marathon Man. 


"Is it safe?"  

That is; everyone is now asking in GREAT PAIN AND FEAR, "Is it safe to buy houses -  again????"


"Yes,"  screams this very fine example of MSM PORE at its very, very and ultimate best! 

Housing Passes a Milestone

Wall Street Journal Juluy 11.2012
The housing market has turned—at last.
“The U.S. finally has moved beyond attention-grabbing predictions from housing "experts" that housing is bottoming. The numbers are now convincing.
Nearly seven years after the housing bubble burst, most indexes of house prices are bending up. "We finally saw some rising home prices," S&P's David Blitzer said a few weeks ago as he reported the first monthly increase in the slow-moving S&P/Case-Shiller house-price data after seven months of declines.

Related 

Nearly 10% more existing homes were sold in May than in the same month a year earlier, many purchased by investors who plan to rent them for now and sell them later, an important sign of an inflection point. In something of a surprise, the inventory of existing homes for sale has fallen close to the normal level of six months' worth despite all the foreclosed homes that lenders own. The fraction of homes that are vacant is at its lowest level since 2006.
The reduced inventory of unsold homes is key, says Mark Fleming, chief economist at CoreLogic, a housing data-analysis firm. For the past couple of years, house prices have risen in the spring and then slumped; the declining supply of houses for sale is reason to believe that won't happen again this year, he says.
Builders began work on 26% more single-family homes in May 2012 than the depressed levels of May 2011. The stock of unsold newly built homes is back to 2005 levels. In each of the past four quarters, housing construction has added to economic growth. In the first quarter, it accounted for 0.4 percentage points of the meager 1.9% growth rate.
"Even with the overall economy slowing," Wells Fargo Securities economists said, cautiously, in a note to clients, "the budding recovery in the housing market appears to be gradually gaining momentum."
Economists aren't always right, but on this at least they agree: A new Wall Street Journal survey of forecasters found 44 believe the housing market has reached its bottom; only three don't. (The full results of the Journal's July survey will be released at 2pm ET)
Housing is still far from healthy despite the Federal Reserve's efforts to resuscitate it by helping to push mortgage rates to extraordinary lows: 3.62% for a 30-year loan, according to Freddie Mac's latest survey. Single-family housing starts, though up, remain 60% below the 2002 pre-bubble pace. Americans' equity in homes is $2 trillion, or 25%, less than it was in 2002 and half what it was at the peak. More than one in every four mortgage borrowers still has a loan bigger than the value of the house, though rising home prices are reducing that fraction slowly.
Still, the upturn in housing is a milestone, a particularly welcome one amid a distressing dearth of jobs. For some time, housing has been one of the biggest causes of economic weakness. It has now—barely—moved to the plus side. "A little tail wind is a lot better than a headwind," says economist Chip Case, …”

Wednesday, July 11, 2012

It's the "Kondratieff," STUPID!


So, with all this bad news of ever-sinking aggregate demand, what do the economists have to say?

 

Besides ---- DUH?!?

 

Well, I invite all the ‘deaf,’ ‘dumb’ and ‘blind’ economists to read ALL our Blogs going back to last Fall and to read ALL the pages of our website at www.polestarcomm.com.

 

Better yet, they should subscribe to our Market Reviews and to our Quarterly Updates, then they would have some logical responses and accurate prognostications to make for a change, when they are asked:

“What is Happening?”  "Why is demand for everything, forever, collapsing - even sinking?"

 

The Brokerage House 'Lobby LIzards' of yesteryear could very easily tell the PEC (Professional Economist Class) "What is Happening," just from the startling facts contained in the second article about world wide demand for Aluminum!  

 

But then again those 'Lobby LIzards' didn't read or write economic textbooks for a living, they just traded the markets.  And I saw some of them make millions of real dollars - back in the 60's and 70's.  And that is something that the PEC could NEVER do, because they would have to be able to see ahead of their noses!  

   

Because, to turn a well-worn phrase from the 1992 Presidential election:

IT’s THE “KONDRATIEFF,”  STUPID!

 

San Bernardino Third California City to Choose Bankruptcy

By Michael B. Marois and Alison Vekshin - Jul 11, 2012 2:11 PM ET
James Quigg/The Victor Valley Daily Press/AP Photo

"San Bernardino’s City Council voted to become the third California municipality this year to seek bankruptcy protection after officials learned they might not have enough cash to pay workers.

"The council last night voted 4 to 2, with one abstention, to authorize filing under Chapter 9 of U.S. bankruptcy law. The city of 209,000, about 65 miles (105 kilometers) east of Los Angeles, is so broke it can’t make its payroll, interim City Manager Andrea Travis-Miller said.
A filing by San Bernardino would follow ones by Stockton, a community of 292,000 east of San Francisco, which on June 28 became the biggest U.S. city to go into bankruptcy. Mammoth Lakes, a mountain resort of 8,200, filed for protection from creditors July 3 saying it can’t afford to pay a $43 million legal judgment, more than twice its general-fund spending for the year.
San Bernardino was already struggling with declining tax revenue, growing worker costs, accounting discrepancies and an unemployment rate in the metropolitan area of almost 12 percent. “If the employees are not paid on Aug. 15, on Aug. 16 there will be a mass exodus of city employees,” City Attorney James Penman told the council before the vote.
“People are not going to work when they don’t get paid,” he said. “Most of our employees will not show up to work. That would include police, fire, refuse, everybody. The city will virtually shut down.” ….”

Alcoa Profit Seen Plunging 84% in Eighth Year of Surplus

Bloomberg; By Sonja Elmquist - Jul 9, 2012 9:20 AM ET
Alcoa Inc. (AA), the largest U.S. aluminum producer, may report an 84 percent decline in second-quarter earnings as the eighth straight year of surplus global production drives down the price of the metal.
While its downstream fabricating business that supplies components to customers such as Ford Motor Co. and Boeing Co. (BA) is profitable, Alcoa’s aluminum-smelting unit is struggling because of lower metal prices. The New York-based company announced in January production-capacity cuts of 12 percent. The primary metals unit will post an $86 million after-tax operating loss, said Brian Yu, a Citigroup Inc. analyst.
“There’s not much they can do on the upstream,” Yu, who’s based in San Francisco and recommends holding the shares, said in a July 6 interview. “The company continues to talk about their productivity gains, and I think it’s an important and notable effort on their side to lower cash cost, but not enough to offset the sharper drop in aluminum prices.” …

Auto Demand

Worldwide aluminum production rose 4.1 percent to 14.9 million metric tons in the first four months of 2012, beating consumption by 623,703 tons, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Output has exceeded usage each year since 2005, the data show. …

Rio Cutback

Alcoa’s quarterly earnings haven’t recovered since commodity prices tumbled after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. filed for bankruptcy at the height of the financial crisis in September 2008. Alcoa has posted four quarterly per-share losses since then and hasn’t recorded net income of more than 32 cents a share.
The company’s competitors are also suffering from the decline in aluminum prices. Rio Tinto Group, the world’s second- largest producer, said today it reduced output by 15 percent at a smelter in New Zealand after prices fell....
Russia’s United Co. Rusal, the largest producer, saw first- quarter profit slump 90 percent. Oslo-based Norsk Hydro ASA (NHY), the fifth-biggest, also posted a 90 percent decline and said last month it would shut 120,000 tons of capacity at its Kurri Kurri smelter in Australia, citing weaker demand and oversupply. …"


Airbus Scraps Target of 30 A380 Sales as Demand Dwindles

Bloomberg; By Andrea Rothman and Robert Wall - Jul 11, 2012 2:01 PM ET
Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg

“Airbus’s John Leahy said today at the Farnborough air show, “The big aircraft market has been slowing down.” Photographer: Matthew Lloyd/Bloomberg
“The big aircraft market has been slowing down,” Airbus Sales Chief John Leahy said in an interview at the Farnborough air show today. The target of 30 is “looking like a stretch at this point but when you set your goals at the beginning of the year you can’t change them. Let’s see how close we can get.”
Airbus has struggled with its flagship model, after cracks emerged in wing components and output in the first half only reached a third of the annual goal of 30 deliveries....

Slow Intake

Airbus’s only contract for the A380 this year is one for four aircraft worth $1.58 billion from Russia’s Transaero Airlines. That’s after Leahy had said Feb. 15 at the Singapore air (SIA) show that he expected to sell at least 30 of the planes, replenishing the backlog by matching the delivery target.
“They’ll struggle to meet that level next year as well,” said Mark Lapidus, managing partner at London-based Doric Asset Finance Ltd., which is the biggest lessor of the A380, with 18 ..."

Sunday, July 8, 2012

"Kondratieff" Death Grip is Tightening!


Despite all the MSM hoopla to the contrary, the following articles do prove that ALL the world’s economies are still contracting under the onslaught of only the First of Three waves of the Super Tsunami “Kondratieff” Long-Waves that hit all the world in 2007/08.  

And in spite of ALL the world being slammed by ONLY the first of three waves of the "Kondratieff,'  no one out there has sounded the alarm, yet!  And in spite of the continued dangerous ebbing of ALL the world’s economies, the PEC (Professional Economist Class) just doesn’t get it, i.e. aggregate demand is FALLING due to a MAJOR shift in consumer psychology.

We cover these things on the pages of our website at www.polestarcomm.com and in much greater detail in our Polestar Market Review and Polestar Quarterly Updates.

Are you and your company ready for the continued unfolding of the economic horrors of the ‘New Normal’ over the next twenty to thirty years? 

Many of the things to be expected that you and your company should be planning for now, we do identify on our ‘New Normal’ web page, as follows:

The very tangible and inevitable effects of the devolving dynamics of this RE “Bubble Bursting” conundrum (until its eventual wash-out) will be the primary causation of a years long interlinked series of psychologically depressing events:
#1 continued suppression of interest rates causing a continued punishment of savers (forcing the gullible ones to the equity markets) until they are totally wiped out when the “Bond Bubble” finally bursts, after the "Great Deception of 2012" has finally run its course,
#2 successive QE's will artificially inject capital into the equity markets fostering totally unwarranted rallies (which will wipe out all the bears, who are actually right) and congruently pull in all the disenchanted bond holders who will then be totally wiped out when the equity markets crash just before the 'Bond Bubble' bursts,
#3 continued inflation of food and energy prices and a continued deflation of all Real Estate prices in 'absolute' terms for the next 12 to 24 months and then a continued decades-long deflation of "Bubble" priced RE in 'inflation adjusted' terms into the 2022 to 2027 time-frame,
#4 continued inflation in the cost of and pricing of all professional services precipitating a continued deflation of quantity and quality of those very services,
#5 continued inflation of all taxes to raise money from the strapped middle classes that will not be sufficient to fund the US Government's expenditures in a period of contracting incomes and GDP, congruent with horrifically expensive Wars and planned Wars. So that, there will then be an accelerated deflation of the quantity and quality of all Government services and a near severance of the US Government’s Social Safety Nets installed in the 30’s by a once caring and socially responsive National political class of Democrats,
#6 continued inflation in the number of Corporate and individual bankruptcies caused by the continued inflation in the absolute numbers of the newly unemployable, as more and more jobs are outsourced or taxed and regulated into oblivion,
#7 all of the above will insure the US Government’s continued bailing out of the financial institutions and banks, which will be financed by the accelerating abandonment of individuals as the ‘Safety Nets’ of States and the US Government are shredded,
#8 the net effect will be a resurgence of the ‘Misery Index’ of the 70’s and a continued surge in all inflation hedges – most especially Gold and Silver!


If you and your company are not ready, you had better GET READY, and don’t get fooled by the false and huge stock market rallies that are directly ahead of us, as the “Great Deception of 2012” is rolled out to deceive all the ‘Sheeple’ into buying vastly overpriced stocks over the next 18 to 24 months!

 

Central Banks Deliver 45-Minute Salvo as Growth Weakens

Bloomberg; By Simon Kennedy - Jul 5, 2012 11:15 AM ET

“…Global central banks went on the offensive against the faltering world economy, cutting interest rates and increasing bond buying as a round of international stimulus gathers pace.
In a 45-minute span, the European Central Bank and People’s Bank of China cut their benchmark borrowing costs, while the Bank of England raised the size of its asset-purchase program. Two weeks ago, the Federal Reserve expanded a program lengthening the maturity of bonds it holds and Chairman Ben S. Bernanke indicated more measures will be taken if needed.

Asked if there was any coordination with other central banks before today’s announcements, ECB President Mario Draghi said there “wasn’t any communication beyond the normal exchange of views.”

“The actions had the look and feel of a coordinated global easing campaign,” said Nick Kounis, head of macro research at ABN Amro Bank NV in Amsterdam. “The central banks are trying to arrest the synchronized slowdown in global economic growth that has taken shape.”
Almost five years since the financial crisis first forced them into action, policy makers are reacting anew as Europe’s debt crisis persists, U.S. hiring slows and emerging markets soften. The jury is out on whether the additional monetary medicine will work or if even more will be needed.
The steps by the U.K. and euro area pushed JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)’s average interest rate for developed economies to a crisis- era low of 0.48 percent and will add to the balance sheets of major central banks, which have already swelled 40 percent since mid-2007.
“Some policy makers may be at the limits of their influence,” UBS AG (UBSN) economist Paul Donovan wrote in a research report today.
…. The world’s largest emerging market is acting more aggressively to spur growth that may have decelerated for a sixth quarter. Officials responded after two manufacturing indexes fell in June and ahead of a report on second-quarter gross domestic product, due on July 13.
“Policy makers have had an early look at the June data and didn’t like what they saw, suggesting the economy is weaker than they previously thought,” said Mark Williams, Asia economist at Capital Economics Ltd. in London.   

  Operation Twist

Today’s shifts come after the Fed expanded its Operation Twist program on June 20 to lower longer-term interest rates in financial markets. Data tomorrow is forecast to confirm the weakest quarter for U.S. employment in more than two years, evidence the world’s biggest economy has lost momentum.
The central banks of Australia, the Czech Republic, Kazakhstan, Vietnam and Israel also cut rates in June, while the Swiss National Bank is buying euros to defend its franc ceiling.
Bank of Japan officials meet next week to review their forecasts with Governor Masaaki Shirakawa today pledging to pursue appropriate policy as the bank promotes powerful easing.
…  It remains to be seen whether the additional measures can bolster growth. UBS’s Donovan said the crisis has damaged so- called monetary transmission mechanisms such as the ability of banks to pass on easier central bank policy.
The ECB cut will have little impact on its economy and officials may have to consider quantitative easing if growth fails to improve in the second half of the year, said Julian Callow, chief international economist at Barclays Plc. (BARC)
… As for the Bank of England, Tom Vosa, director of economic research at National Australia Bank, said the U.K. economy is so stressed that 90 percent of the money the central bank is injecting could end up in risk-free assets or reserves..."


No  Folks!  90% of the new money from all of these Central Banks will end up in the world’s stock and commodity markets – pure and simple, as we did cover many times in these Blogs!

 

Payrolls in U.S. Rose 80,000 in June; Jobless Rate 8.2%

Bloomberg: By Alex Kowalski - Jul 6, 2012 1:47 PM ET
Payrolls Rise 80,000 in June as Jobless Rate Holds
American employers added fewer workers to payrolls than forecast in June and the jobless rate stayed at 8.2 percent as the economic outlook dimmed.
The 80,000 gain in employment followed a 77,000 increase in May, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. Economists projected a 100,000 rise, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. Growth in private payrolls was the weakest in 10 months.
Stocks fell on concern hiring has shifted into a lower gear, restricting consumer spending and leaving the economy more vulnerable to a global slowdown. The figures underscore concern among some Federal Reserve policy makers that growth isn’t fast enough to lower unemployment stuck above 8 percent since February 2009.
“The job market is soft,” said David Resler, chief economic adviser at Nomura Securities International Inc., who correctly forecast the payrolls gain. “I’d characterize our reaction as much the same way the Fed will react -- not surprised but disappointed. It’s just not the kind of growth we need to see at this stage in the business cycle.”



Service Industries in U.S. Grew Less Than Forecast in June

Bloombegr; By Shobhana Chandra - 2012-07-05T14:55:57Z
“… Service industries in the U.S. expanded in June at the slowest pace since January 2010, a sign the biggest part of the economy is struggling to gain momentum.
July 5 (Bloomberg) -- Timothy Bitsberger, a managing director at BNP Paribas and a former assistant secretary for financial markets at the U.S. Treasury, talks about the U.S. economy and Federal Reserve monetary policy. Bitsberger, speaking with Betty Liu on Bloomberg Television's "In the Loop," also discusses the European Central Bank's rate-cut decision today and the region's debt crisis. (Source: Bloomberg)
Companies from Family Dollar Stores Inc. (FDO) to FedEx Corp. (FDX) are seeing waning demand, underscoring concern about Europe’s debt crisis, cooling global markets and an absence of U.S. fiscal policy clarity that’s also hurting manufacturing. Limited hiring and income growth indicate households will be reluctant to step up purchases, which account for about 70 percent of the economy.
“Business activity in the services, construction and government sectors of the economy decelerated in June but is still growing at a modest pace,” Steven Wood, principal economist at Insight Economics LLC in Danville, California, said in an e-mail to clients. “A cyclical economic expansion is currently in place but it has softened in the past three months.”
Economists’ estimates in the Bloomberg survey ranged from 51.5 to 54.2. Before the latest numbers, the index averaged 53.4 since the recession ended in June 2009.
Stocks fell, snapping a three-day advance for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, as optimism with jobless claims data fizzled on concern over the outlook for global growth. The S&P 500 dropped 0.4 percent to 1,369.08 at 10:54 a.m. in New York.

June ISM manufacturing gauge turns below 50%

WSJ; By Steve Goldstein;July 2, 2012, 10:03 a.m. EDT

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Manufacturing activity in the U.S. dropped in June into contraction territory for the first time since July 2009, the Institute for Supply Management said Monday. The ISM dropped to 49.7% from 53.5% in May, against a MarketWatch-compiled economist poll of 52.3%. The new-orders index dropped 12.3 percentage points in June, registering 47.8% and indicating contraction in new orders for the first time since April 2009.

 

Berkshire’s Pederson Says U.S. Businesses Scaling Back

Bloomberg; By Noah Buhayar - Jul 2, 2012 10:51 AM ET
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK/A)’s furniture- rental unit saw a slowing in demand from business clients in the second quarter, indicating that firms are curbing spending on projects amid less optimism about the U.S. economy.
Demand is “simmering compared to where it was at the beginning of the year, when it looked like the recovery, at least from our perspective, would have been pretty robust,” said Jeff Pederson, the new chief executive officer of Berkshire’s CORT Business Services Corp., the world’s largest provider of rental furniture. “It’s not flat-lining, by any stretch of the imagination, but it has slowed down.”
Warren Buffett, who built Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire into a company valued at more than $200 billion selling products from ice cream to insurance, uses results at the firm’s more than 70 operating units to gauge the health of the economy. He highlighted CORT’s rebound in a February letter to shareholders as an example of how businesses not tied to housing have recovered since the recession that ended in 2009.