Wednesday, June 6, 2012

Tide has Turned on Gold

Read Following before you read this post from three years ago.


Re:5/20/2015 The many emails and a few phone calls that have alerted me to a peculiarly strange fiction; namely, that my website is BS.  And then the poster/caller references this post of nearly three years to prove his point!!!


Alert~!!  Wake up Dummies

Well folks, IF you would but realize that these FREE blogs were posted sequentially as they occurred, you will realize that this post was actually a quite miraculous post on my part. 

Unless you knew my reasons and my sources (HINT ---- Only the HIGHEST and MOST ACCURATELY TRUTHFUL!)

And that is because AFTER these posts early in that  YEAR of 2012, I reversed course --– for subscribers ---- and called a MAJOR BULL-TRAP for the stupid Gold bulls on September the 19th of that same year!!

And my new target at that time in September of 2012 was 950 to 824 Au per oz!

I then let the readers of these FREE Blogs know about my reversal on Au --  later on in the early months of 2013, i.e. those who pay me $, get these things when it REALLY matters!!!!!!!!

And that BEAR CALL on GOLD has remained untouched to this very day:  I am still looking for a serious break DOWN from here, sometime soon.

To be followed by the last ever GOLD BULL CALL --- from this site.

Ba DEEEE Ba DEEEE Dat’s ALL FOLKS!!


We posted last Fall that Gold would not reach new highs in December/January time frame as so many had predicted.  Our initial target for 2012 of $1,475 was never reached, but $1523 was pretty close.

We are abandoning that call in the face of overwhelming evidence that a new up leg on Gold is now in motion, as supported by the following evidence:

#1 margin requirements on Gold have just been reduced to 13%,

#2 the GDX ETF (Index of Major Mining companies) has put in a substantial reversal that was established in mid-May and supported by certain of the Producers that are established ‘leading indicators,’

#3 the major Gold producers are now producing ‘unhedged.’  They have stopped selling forward, which means that they are positioning themselves for rising gold prices and not falling Gold prices,

#4 inflation of all things is now really taking a bite out of disposable income flows in such a fashion that it is now absolutely undeniable and nearly everyone that buys anything is starting to complain and beginning to recognize the deceit of the FED, the economic pundits, the MSM and the US CD on these things and that their Dollar is worth LESS every day and will soon be WORTHLESS, 

#5 manipulation of the Gold price has now created such abhorrently obvious aberrations that there is now incessant and relentless and uncontrollable buying of Gold at all price levels from Russia and China and Asia, whose “Sheeple’ are not subject to the MSM PORE campaigns of the Western countries: these buyers recognize Gold as a currency and that it is severely under priced versus the Fiat currencies of the West.

In fact, if Gold were priced right now from 1980 as calculated by the Official US CD inflation rate since that time, it would be roughly $ 2,500 an ounce and if it were priced at the real inflation rate – the one that we have all experienced and lived through – then it would be around $9,000 an ounce.

Well the people in all those other countries know these things and they will not be dissuaded from saving their financial lives from the incessant cheapening of the Fiat currencies of the West!

Now to these things add #5 and #6 from the following article and the weight of the evidence is clearly in the camp of the Gold Bulls.  So we now believe that the next leg of Gold rally of the last ten years is now in place.

#5 the world’s Central Banks are buying more Gold, and consistently so, than they ever have since 1964!  And those of us who are old enough do clearly remember what happened after that!

#6 George Soros – who broke the Bank of England in the early 90’s - is long Gold again!

#7 The FED’s public statements that it will continue the ZIRP into late 2014 and the recent consensus that QE 3 is now made inevitable by the latest horrific economic data is the final element that dictates this call!

Gold Bugs Defy Bear-Market Threat With Soros Buying

Bloomberg; By Nicholas Larkin and Debarati Roy - Jun 6, 2012 10:23 AM ET
 “… Billionaire George Soros bought more in the first quarter and hedge-fund manager John Paulson held on to the biggest stake in the SPDR Gold Trust, the largest exchange-traded product backed by bullion, Securities and Exchange Commission filings show. Some investors are refusing to capitulate even after failed elections in Greece drove the euro to a two-year low against the dollar and gold slumped as much as 21 percent in December from the record $1,923.70 set in September.
“The $2,000 target has moved further away, but it still holds,” said John Stephenson, who helps manage $2.7 billion at First Asset Investment Management Inc. in Toronto and predicted in November that prices would reach $2,500 in the next several months. “We will see some easing, and that will push gold higher, but the reality is that we are on hold until the outcome of the Greece elections.”

Bear Market

Gold fell 19 percent by May 16 from its closing high of $1,891.90 in August, within 1 percentage point of the common definition of a bear market. Prices then touched a five-month low of $1,523.90 on Dec. 29. After rallying 3.7 percent on June 1, the metal is now up 4.5 percent since the start of January to $1,637.80 today, extending an 11-year bull market.
...
Hedge funds and other speculators reduced their net-long positions, or bets on higher prices, by 70 percent since August, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. They held 77,325 U.S. futures and options in the week ended May 29, almost the fewest since December 2008.
...

Goldman Predicts

In October, Bank of America forecast $2,000 by early 2012. Goldman predicted in December that gold would reach $1,840 by early June. Barclays and Morgan Stanley said in January that it would average $1,850 and $1,810 this quarter. The metal actually averaged $1,619 since the end of March.... The metal rose almost sixfold since the end of 2000, beating the 24 percent advance in the S&P 500, with dividends reinvested, and the 90 percent return on Treasuries. The Dollar Index (DXY) fell 25 percent.
While gold’s four-month drop from February is the longest since the start of the bull market, it’s not the biggest. Futures fell 21 percent in a month in 2006 and 30 percent over eight months in 2008, before rallying to end higher for the year. ...

‘Last Resort’

“Gold remains the currency of last resort,” said Jeff Currie, the New York-based head of commodity research at Goldman, which predicts $1,840 by the end of the year. “The case for higher gold prices remains intact.”
…. Central banks, the world’s biggest owners of gold, have added to their reserves for 14 consecutive months through March, the longest streak since 1964, IMF data show.

‘Asset Bubble’

Soros Fund Management LLC, founded by the 81-year-old billionaire, more than tripled its investment in the SPDR Gold Trust in the first quarter to 319,550 shares now valued at $50.2 million, an SEC filing May 15 showed. It held as few as 42,800 shares last year and as many as 6.2 million at the end of 2009. Soros called gold the “ultimate asset bubble” in January 2010.

Central Bank

Gold rallied last year in anticipation of the Federal Reserve announcing a third round of debt buying. The metal rose about 70 percent as the Fed bought $2.3 trillion of debt in two rounds of so-called quantitative easing ending in June 2011. …
Demand may also be supported by record-low interest rates from the U.S. to Europe because gold generally earns investors returns only through price gains. The Fed has pledged to keep rates at “exceptionally low levels” at least through late 2014. The European Central Bank, as well as flooding markets with more than 1 trillion euros ($1.23 trillion), has kept its refinancing rate at 1 percent since December.

No comments:

Post a Comment