Friday, May 4, 2012

Why Gold Is Going Higher Over Time


We first predicted last Fall in our Blogs - in the heat of Gold's run to $1,923 an oz - that Gold would NEVER reach $2,000 in late 2011 as predicted by the experts and that 2012 would be a BIG DOWN year for gold, and it certainly has so far - with another six to nine months to go in our opinion!

However, in the midst of this contrived and manipulated correction exists a HUGE opportunity for all investors to save themselves from the incipient SUPER-INFLATIONARY wave that will precede the SECOND wave of the Super-Tsunami "Kondratieff" Long-Wave that will utterly destroy the US economy in 18 to 36 months (Most likely October 2014 to March 2015) and is now absolutely ordained - courtesy of the FED's TOTALLY INSANE ZIRP!

Everyone can witness this SUPER-INFLATIONARY wave gather steam in the coming months as they see the price of ALL foodstuffs, hardware items, garden items (especially fertilizer), ALL insurance, ALL transportation prices and costs of ALL entertainment quite literally EXPLODE; all the while masked by a US CD monthly inflation report of 1 1/2 to 2/ 1/2%, because the government BureaurcRATS do KNOW that the American 'Sheeple' have finally been dumbed down to a new level of total and complete psychologically sublimated submission to ALL the LIES fed to them daily on their FV's (Funny Visions)!!

In our opinion, all investors can only save themselves from this NOW quite certain economic DEBACLE by implementing one strategy RIGHT NOW, i.e. buying a great portfolio of Gold stocks that includes Producers (recently hammered) and great little Explorers.

Here is a very brief glimpse of the means and the methods by which Polestar Communications’ Econometric Models do discover and confirm the real 'Pulse of the Markets' and an example of how we construct our Econometric Models and why we believe them to be more accurately predictive than those constructed by the economic professionals. 

Namely, we look for nexus and inflection points that others have missed.

Read on:

We have determined over many years study that the FLEGS (Fear, Lust, Envy, Greed and Stupidity) factors are as much – if not more - a determining influence on price trends as the academically accepted elements of perceived utility, relative pricing, delivery or production constraints and availability of inputs and replacements or cost of inventory or competitive forces.  Therefore, we first look for the FLEGS in every analysis to discover the driving forces of any market.

The following article from the Gallup organization attempts to examine and explain the relationship between the public’s heightened interest in gold and their recently expressed preference for gold over other investments, which is proving very troublesome for the “Puppet Masters.”

However, the PEC’s (Professional Economist Class) have failed to realize that the continued rise in Gold and the public’s preference for gold may have nothing to do with the public’s perception of Gold's value versus other investments.

In fact, in our opinion the public’s new preference for gold is a DIRECT inverse reaction to something exposed in the two following articles from a NON– MSM source.

Namely, the American public is losing confidence in all institutions as the lies from all sides are becoming obvious to all, e.g. the US CD’s hilarious decades-long inflation numbers of 1 ½ to 2 ¼%!  As a result the public is motivated more and more by FEAR of the unknown, exacerbated by their growing awareness that the US Government agencies are telling outright lies.

In fact, let me put in a plug – right here – for www.WashingtonsBlog.com Website.  IMO – everybody should read it at least once a week to understand the truth behind the news reported by the MSM.

Remember - We predicted in November of last year that Gold would be flat to down in 2012, before exploding in 2013 and beyond as the FED'S ZIRP force-feeds inflation to break the Deflationary grip of the "Kondratieff," which   tactic is doomed to failure.  Therefore, this discussion is not about the next several months but is relevant to the next few years when gold will ultimately reach into the $5,000 to $7,000 per ounce range in 2015 to 2017 time-frame.  

Gold Still Americans' Top Pick Among Long-Term Investments

Percentage saying gold is best long-term investment down slightly since last summer

Gallup; by Lydia Saad; April 27, 2012

PRINCETON, NJ -- Gold leads four other types of investments in Americans' perceptions of which is "the best long-term investment," although the 28% choosing it today is down slightly from 34% in August. Traditional savings accounts or CDs have gained in support over this time, rising to tie stocks/mutual funds and real estate as the next-most-valued investments. Bonds rank a distant fifth.
2011-2012 Trend: Perceived Best Investment, Including Gold as an Option

…These results are similar to those found a year ago, but reflect a decline in support for savings accounts/CDs since 2009, when these peaked at 34%. Longer term, the perceived value of real estate fell sharply between 2002 and 2007, and subsequently dipped slightly further.
Confidence in stocks/mutual funds increased between 2002 and 2007, but then plummeted in 2008 and 2009 before partly recovering since then.
Trend: Perceived Best Investment, Not Including Gold as an Option
Bottom Line
Investing in gold has gained in popularity in recent years as low interest rates have made traditional savings instruments less attractive, and instability in the stock and real estate markets has undermined the mass appeal of those options. Meanwhile, the rising trajectory of the price of gold over the past several years apparently offers more of the returns and stability investors seek. Although gold prices dipped in the last quarter of 2011 after hitting an all-time high of $1,924 per ounce in September, and have yet to fully recover, more Americans continue to consider gold the best long-term investment among the major options available to consumers.

Now what follows from www.washingtonsblog.com is the real reason that we believe the "Sheeple" are turning to Gold, i.e. they mistrust the US Government.  And check out the second article, which reveals that the level of mistrust amongst Americans today of our own Government is greater than was expressed by our forbears of King George at the time of The American Revolution! 
 
Americans Don’t Believe Government Lies: “Forty-Eight Percent Say That Another Great Depression Is Likely To Occur In The Next Year … More Than Eight In Ten Americans Say That The Economy Is In Poor Shape”
Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke says that jobs and growth will pick up in the second half of the year.
But – according to over 5 million Google hits – Mr. Bernanke is not telling the truth.
President Obama says we’re not headed for a double-dip recession.
But CNN notes:
Forty-eight percent say that another Great Depression is likely to occur in the next year – the highest that figure has ever reached. The survey also indicates that just under half live in a household where someone has lost a job or are worried that unemployment may hit them in the near future.
***
According to the survey, more than eight in ten Americans say that the economy is in poor shape, a number that has stubbornly remained at that level since March.
(Before you take any solace in the fact that less than 50% believe we’ll have another depression, Gallup noted in April that more Americans think the country is in a Depression than think the economy is growing.)
How bad are things? And why aren’t they improving?
One more time … from the top.
Billion dollar fund managers agree: the government never fixed the underlying economic problems, so we’ll have another crash.
The housing slump is now officially worse than during the Great Depression, and still may get much worse.
Chronic unemployment is worse than during the Great Depression. And more people will be unemployed during this downturn than during the Great Depression. In addition – in contrast with the Great Depression – the loss of jobs now appears to be permanent.
For those lucky enough to have jobs, wages appear to have increased less over the past 10 years (when adjusted for inflation) than they did during a comparable 10-year period during the Great Depression.
As CNN Money points out, things are so bad that Wal-Mart’s CEO is worried that people won’t be able to afford their goods.
I wrote last December:
The following experts have – at some point during the last 2 years – said that the economic crisis could be worse than the Great Depression:
·         Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke
·         Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan (and see this and this)
·         Former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker
·         Economics scholar and former Federal Reserve Governor Frederic Mishkin
·         The head of the Bank of England Mervyn King
·         Nobel prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz
·         Nobel prize winning economist Paul Krugman
·         Former Goldman Sachs chairman John Whitehead
·         Economics professors Barry Eichengreen and and Kevin H. O’Rourke (updated here)
·         Investment advisor, risk expert and “Black Swan” author Nassim Nicholas Taleb
·         Well-known PhD economist Marc Faber
·         Morgan Stanley’s UK equity strategist Graham Secker
·         Former chief credit officer at Fannie Mae Edward J. Pinto
·         Billionaire investor George Soros
·         Senior British minister Ed Balls

 

 

 

A Higher Percentage of Americans Believed in King George During the Revolutionary War than Believe in Congress Today

Influential Harvard and Stanford law professor Lawrence Lessig noted in a must-watch speech last week that polls show that only 11% of the American people have confidence in Congress.
He notes that more people believed in King George at the time of the Revolutionary War than believe in congress today.
He’s right.
Historians have estimated that between 15 and 20% of the white population of the colonies were Loyalists

 


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