The "New Normal" is now emerging on every front!

The following quote is the introduction to our “New Normal” page on this website:

The “New Normal” of a decades-long Real Estate Deflation of ALL Commercial and Residential "Bubble" priced RE and a steady and increasingly pernicious Commodity Inflation will depress the Public Psyche for many, many years, as the Monetary and Fiscal Authorities of ALL Nations fight the unrelentingly depressive effects of the "Kondratieff" Long-Wave, to no avail.

Now, our identification of a “New Normal” in the Public Psyche of this once prosperous, once boisterous, once exuberant and Once Great Christian Country* (OGCC) will be confirmed over time by the emergence of a whole constellation of Societal, Cultural and economic ills that are arising due to unstoppable "Kondratieff" forces.

Another of the primary forces (in addition to that of collapsing RE prices noted in the prior Blog), that will unleash the above noted ills, is the now wide spread acceptance and promulgation of GAMBLING by our State Governments, almost all of which are in dire financial straits. 

And as Mark Twain noted almost 140 years ago ubiquitous ‘numbers’ runners and venders and rampant prostitution are the two most salient features of a decadent and poverty stricken and broken country.  The ‘Numbers’ games of 19^th century were verisimilar in concept to the modern day computerized Lottery, except that the ‘numbers’ of the late 19^th century offered much higher odds of a ticket buyer actually winning something than does the modern day Lotto.

The United States, as noted in the footnote to this Blog, is well on its way to the ‘state of perdition’ observed by Mark Twain in those extremely poverty stricken states of the 19^th century.  His comments are doubly ironic since Twain made his mark as a great author of and commentator on the uniquely powerful elements of a once great Christian Country - the United States of America. 

You and your company had better get prepared for more of the following, for we do KNOW that the phenomena of the poor and the hopeless and the jobless and the newly homeless and forlorn resorting to the fantasy and chimera of wealth of the Lottery will greatly expand in coming years.  In fact, "Fantasy" in future years may be the only real 'sales hook' available to any business in these United States in future years, just as in the 30's.

Expect an expansion of the following sad stats after the next “Surprise” and Phony and artificial and VERY short-lived boost to the US economy, referred to in yesterday’s Blog, totally evaporates and the long term power of the “Kondratieff” Long-Wave is firmly in control again – roughly twelve to eighteen months from now.

Lottery Sales Rise to Records in 17 States

Bloomberg:By Amanda J. Crawford - Nov 30, 2011 12:01 AM ET

“. . . Facing growing unemployment, record home foreclosures, declining tax revenue and an annual budget deficit that reached $3 billion, Arizona revamped a key money- making enterprise: the state lottery.

… “Especially during a recessionary period, players were looking for a reason to play the game,” said Jeff Hatch-Miller, 66, executive director of the Arizona Lottery in an interview at his Phoenix office. . . Even as unemployment remained high and the economy dragged, players in many states responded. . . .Many states are considering expanded gambling as well. Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick signed legislation Nov. 22 authorizing as many as three resort casinos in his state, while officials in Georgia and Florida are weighing similar proposals. Interstate gambling online is barred by federal law. Washington, D.C., and other jurisdictions are looking at launching Internet poker within their boundaries. At least 28 states have considered lottery or gaming-related bills since 2010 to close budget gaps, according to data from the Washington-based National Conference of State Legislatures.

. . .Across the country, state lotteries are rebranding, adding games, recruiting new retailers and moving online to attract new players.

In Tennessee, some lawmakers are calling for the lottery to accept credit and debit cards for purchases that now require cash. A bill in New Jersey would allow tickets to be sold on the Internet or via smartphones. . .“You have politicians not wanting to raise taxes right now, so lotteries are good ways to raise money,” said David G. Schwartz, director of the Center for Gaming Research at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas.

California is poised to have its best year of lottery sales ever after a 2010 law signed by then-Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger allowed bigger prize payouts, spurring interest in the games and supporting higher-priced tickets.

… The Florida Lottery, . . . went where no state lottery had gone before: Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) Tickets went on sale in about 30 smaller Wal-Mart grocery markets in Florida last month -- a pilot program being watched by lottery officials nationwide. . .

Florida officials hope the retailer will eventually allow sales in its supercenters, Bishop said. “It is the brick wall that every lottery in the country has wanted to break through,” he said.

… States are also exploring selling through the Internet. The New York Lottery, which began offering ticket subscriptions online in 2005, plans to allow individual ticket sales and expand to more games on its website as soon as next year, said

No Control

Kate Sweeny, an assistant professor of psychology at the University of California, Riverside, who studies how people respond to difficult life events, said after a few years in a down economy, some people feel no control over their financial futures -- so they might turn their hope to the lottery.

“What you are buying is maybe a chance to have financial relief at a time where finances aren’t at their best for a lot of people,” Sweeny said.

*Thanks to one of the very first pronouncements of President Obama in January of 2008, ALL Americans were firmly advised that, “This is no longer a Christian Nation!”

Well, I for one can - and do - agree wholeheartedly with President Obama on this one! 

Being a VERY strong Christian myself, who does KNOW Almighty God (The Father) in the name of His Son (The Christ), I can aver that this country is NOT the country that I grew up in; that this country’s schools DO NO LONGER teach the Values of a Christian life as taught by my Lord and Savior; that this country does NOT advocate the highest moral standards as taught by the Son of God while he walked as a man on this earth; and that this country does NOT treasure ALL life, most especially from the moment of conception (when the united male and female seed is endowed with a soul DIRECTLY from Almighty God), as proven by this country’s endorsement and consent and approval of the murder of these unborn children of God; and that this country IS on the road to perdition, as NOW impelled by the power of the “Kondratieff” Long-Wave!.

The "New Normal" is now emergent!

The following quote is the introduction to our “New Normal” page on this website:

The “New Normal” of a decades-long Real Estate Deflation of ALL Commercial and Residential "Bubble" priced RE and a steady and increasingly pernicious Commodity Inflation will depress the Public Psyche for many, many years, as the Monetary and Fiscal Authorities of ALL Nations fight the unrelentingly depressive effects of the "Kondratieff" Long-Wave, to no avail.

Now, our identification of a “New Normal” in the Public Psyche of this once prosperous, once boisterous, once exuberant and once Christian Country* will be confirmed over time by the emergence of a whole constellation of Societal, Cultural and economic ills that are arising due to unstoppable "Kondratieff" forces.

One of the primary forces, that will unleash the above noted ills, is the unremitting collapse of ALL “Bubble” priced Commercial and Residential Real Estate (RE) for the last five years, which will continue for many more years and eventually (2013-15) result in a revival of the Misery Index of the 70’s that in its new iteration will reach truly spectacular heights, far outstripping that achieved under the direction of President Carter.

You and your company had better get prepared for more of the following, for we do KNOW that surveys such as this will become even more foreboding after the next “Surprise” and Phony and artificial and VERY short-lived boost to the US economy, referred to in yesterday’s Blog, totally evaporates and the long term power of the “Kondratieff” Long-Wave is firmly in control again – roughly twelve to eighteen months from now.

Study: Bay area among saddest US cities

WFTS, ABC ACTION NEWS; 11/29/11  

“We may live in the sunshine state, but one Tampa Bay city is the considered the saddest placed to live in America.

As a matter of fact, the majority of our cities are the saddest places to live among the United States, according to a Men’s Health study published Monday.

Based on suicide rates, unemployment rates, patients on antidepressants and people who admit to depression, Men’s Health came up with a list of 100 cities ranging from the happiest to the saddest.

Here’s how Florida’s cities ranked.

#100 St. Petersburg, #97 Tampa, #93 Miami, #88 Jacksonville, #82 Orlando. . “

*Thanks to one of the very first pronouncements of President Obama in January of 2008, ALL Americans were firmly advised that, “This is no longer a Christian Nation!”

Well, I for one can - and do - agree wholeheartedly with President Obama on this one! 

Being a VERY strong Christian myself, who does KNOW Almighty God (The Father) in the name of His Son (The Christ), I can aver that this country is NOT the country that I grew up in; that this country’s schools DO NO LONGER teach the Values of a Christian life as taught by my Lord and Savior; that this country does NOT advocate the highest moral standards as taught by the Son of God while he walked as a man on this earth; and that this country does NOT treasure ALL life, most especially from the moment of conception (when the united male and female seed is endowed with a soul DIRECTLY from Almighty God), as proven by this country’s endorsement and consent and approval of the murder of these unborn children of God; and that this country IS on the road to perdition, as NOW impelled by the power of the “Kondratieff” Long-Wave!.

Continued RE collapse ordained by the "Kondratieff" Long-Wave

Today’s news of a continued slump in home prices - nearly five years after their peak in the winter/spring of 2006 - is undoubtedly another surprise, except for those who have read our latest annual forecast.  In that inaugural issue, we identified the systemically irreversible Macro and Micro Economic Forces that utterly ordain a decades-long collapse of ALL “Bubble” priced Commercial and Residential Real Estate (RE). 

This still unfolding and little understood phenomena will prove to be a horrific and totally unexpected drama for all those who were ‘all in’ at the top of the RE “Bubble” and for all those who continue to buy more RE at these levels because they are thinking that today’s collapsed  Commercial and Residential RE prices are at the bottom, which they are NOT; there is a long way to go - yet!

And that is so because the scorned and ridiculed theory of a Long-Wave business cycle, that was first identified by Nikolai Kondratieff in the 1920’s, is right now being proven true – by the ineluctable facts.  Kondratieff’s discoveries have been totally ignored by economists because the existence of such a cycle would have proven to be inimical to ALL their economic theories and wrecked havoc with their most treasured life’s work. 

And that is EXACTLY why Stalin had him shot on the very day of his being sentenced to ten years at hard labor.  The Communists were very efficient with any perceived threats.  They greatly feared more books from this genius that would have disproved the basic foundation of Marx’s Dialectical Materialism (DM) that predicted the eventual and total decay of Capitalism, which supposedly unavoidable decay was very neatly contradicted by Kondratieff’s Long-Wave cycle of decades-long downturns followed by equally powerful decades-long upturns of new growth and regeneration.

Kondratieff posited that such a Long-Wave business cycle would be evidenced in all economic systems, whether they be Capitalistic or Socialistic or Communistic or a ‘Bastardization’ of all three, which we currently suffer from in America.  Stalin’s minions recognized that the very core of Marx’s DM would have been eviscerated if a secular economic Long-Wave of the “Kondratieff” type could have been logically presented in sound and acceptable theoretical form.  And it was rumored by his wife’s friends that Nikolai had more books, in which he would do just that.  His first book had merely reported the evidence in the long-term data of a Long-Wave that was universally exhibited in all economic systems. 

Stalin and his Communist brethren obviously would not have welcomed these revelations and had him summarily executed.

I am quite certain that the ‘Powers That BE’ in 2011 America do sometimes earnestly wish for equally effective means of suppression of unpopular proponents of unpopular economic concepts.  Most especially do they wish to silence the promulgation of those economic concepts that threaten everything that they do and reveal everything they say to be Balderdash; such as, the truth of the Long-Wave systemic power of the “Kondratieff“ generational cycle, which does totally demolish the value and the accuracy of their every pronouncement of the last five years. 

Many details of the “Kondratieff“ Long-Wave and what to expect over the next few years are covered in our latest yearly review and forecast – available by subscription.    

As we very clearly emphasized in that forecast, it is very important that all those companies dependent on an understanding of the real world’s “New Normal” economic landscape not be fooled by the coming rise in collapsed “Bubble” priced RE in 'absolute' Dollar terms when RE prices begin to rise, just a tad, in roughly the 1^st QTR of 2013.  And we can assure all, with GREAT confidence, that when the FED’s (2008-201?) ZIRP is finally exploding the prices of everything into the stratosphere RE will rise, but only in ‘absolute’ terms - NOT in ‘inflation adjusted’ terms. 

Additionally, we can predict with TOTAL confidence that the pundits and assorted ‘talking heads’ that will be paraded out by the MSM, at that time, will uproariously celebrate the return of rising RE prices that will still be ACTUALLY falling in real ‘inflation adjusted’ terms but probably not in the bogus CPI inflation numbers!  

In a related matter, by identifying this coming delusional specter of returning ‘good times’ in the RE sector and intently focusing on the incipient “Roar” of FED induced inflation bearing down on ALL the world, our annual forecast recommended the necessity of the creation of a “REAL Consumer Price Index”(RCPI) since the CPI issued by the US Commerce Department is so very obviously incorrect.  Our proposed RCPI vs. the CPI was covered in great detail in that issue, and we are now constructing the elements of the Polestar RCPI. 

As is so very evident in the today’s news article below, the economists are just now trying to get ahead of this continued collapse in “Bubble” priced RE by predicting that the weakness will continue into 2012. 

Boy, have they got a surprise coming! 

Because, despite all the evidence of the last few years that stares them in the face day after day, they have not even come close to realizing that collapsing Commercial and Residential “Bubble” priced RE is in the grips of the “Kondratieff” Long-Wave with many years and several decades to go. 

The economist’s many dismal failures, of their predictions based on the failed theories and failed econometric models of their “Dismal Science,” will contribute to the ultimate failure of many companies that continue to follow them.  Disappointment is assured for those companies that do depend almost totally on CDS.  For, consumer’s real and ‘inflation adjusted’ incomes will erode year after year and many more jobs and incomes will very simply disappear in the depression spawned by “Kondratieff” Long-Wave. 

In a few quarter’s time, these effects will be visible to all, with the imminent resurgence of the Credit-Crisis of 2007-08 that never actually dissipated and the reemergence of the ‘Greatest Recession’ that never abated and will eventually be known as the 'Greatest Depression!'

Will your company be one of those that fail because they planned Advertising and Marketing Strategies and built inventory levels and structured product and service offerings to meet the economic expectations of these failed prophets?

U.S. Home Prices Decline More Than Forecast

Bloomberg; By Alex Kowalski - Nov 29, 2011 9:18 AM ET

 “. . . Residential real estate prices dropped more than forecast in the year ended September, showing the industry at the center of the 2008 financial crisis continues to struggle. . . . The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 cities dropped 3.6 percent in September from the same month in 2010 after decreasing 3.8 percent in the year ended August, the group said today in New York. The median forecast of 32 economists in a Bloomberg News survey projected a 3 percent decrease. . .

. . . Atlanta, Las Vegas and Phoenix posted new post peak lows in September, the report showed.

. . . Eighteen of the 20 cities in the index showed a year-over- year decline, led by a 9.8 percent drop in Atlanta.

. . . Builders, which are competing with the 3.33 million unit glut of previously owned homes, sold fewer new houses in the U.S. than forecast in October, Commerce Department data showed yesterday. Demand is on pace to reach 301,000 this year, less than the 323,000 homes sold in 2010, which marked the fewest sales since data-keeping began in 1963.

“We’re in a market that’s quite fragile,” Ara Hovnanian, chairman and chief executive officer of Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (HOV), said during a Nov. 9 investor conference. . . “

"Dupes" are setting up the "Dopes"

The events of 11/23 – 11/27/11 have prompted this Blog, which is destined to become a foundational, seminal and revelatory Blog concerning the eventual revelations of certain pivotal things in the International Financial Marketplace (IFM).  But, right now in this Blog we will cover, the EU’s handling of the European Bad-Bank’s holdings of their Bad-Bets on the Bad-Debts of the sovereign debt of the failed Socialistic States of the GIIPS. 

And it is very important to understand that this is NOT just a European problem.  It is most deadly for Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan who combined have written the majority of over $670,000,000,000 of insurance that was written by American Banks on the Bad-Bets of the Bad-Debts of the Bad-Bankers (BBBDBB) in Europe.  And if Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan were to lose these Bad Bets on their $.67 Trillion insurance policies they would INSTANTLY DIE! 

BUT, they can’t die as they should because they are too smart for that, because Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan are now (as of the fall of 2008) Bank Holding Companies and full Reserve Member Banks of the Federal Reserve System that is essentially backed by the Full Faith & Credit of ALL American taxpayers, via the FED’s control of US Monetary Policy.

So, this EU debt problem is MUCH MORE than a big deal, and that is why the surprise of a “Solution to the EU Debt Problem” should come as no surprise, to those “who can see” and to those “who can hear” what is veiled and what is hidden to the vast majority.  

Therefore, it is very critical for all retailers in the US – and in the world – to understand that the tone of all bond and stock markets will ABSOLUTELY affect the consumer’s willingness to spend IN THE SHORT TERM!  Therefore, ALL companies who are dealing directly with the consumer need to understand the several elements covered in this cursory exposition – clearly.

They should understand all the following, so that they can - RIGHT NOW - ramp up their inventories and gear up their Advertising and Marketing campaigns for a veritably ordained very last surge of consume-buying in 2012 that will be prompted and funded by an explosion in the world wide Stock Markets, when the surprise that is no surprise (for those reading this Blog) hits in the spring of 2012!

For all companies who are selling anything to the public this is important to understand because a failed resolution – in the short term – of the so-called EU debt crisis would quite instantly cause a falling debt market in the EU and here in the US and that would horrifically spike interest rates.  And a falling debt market and spiking interest rates would IMMEDIATELY precipitate a crashing stock market here and around the world.  And a falling US stock market and spiking interest rates would absolutely precipitate a TOTAL and irrevocable collapse of US consumer spending.

And that is why it won’t happen now but rather later. And, at a time that is itself ordained so as to catch the greatest majority by surprise - except for those who subscribe to our services (First) and those who read this Blog (Second)!

All of the above does probably appear so mind-numbingly confusing and incomprehensible to 99.9999% of the people in the world because they listen to the rattle and snare of the drums and do not WATCH the drummer!  They cannot see the truth because the machinations of a tiny group “who can see” and “who can hear” and “who do control” these things are veiled and hidden.   

And those select few are?

.

For those who have watched the machinations of the IFM for several decades and especially during those periods of 1965 to 1972 and 1977 to 1980 and 1996 to 2000, the events of which set up this current financial debacle, all the above recent events out of Europe become VERY clear when one discerns who are the “Dupes,” who are the “Dopes” and who is doing the duping of the “Dopes” and the “Dupes” and for what evil purposes.  I do know the classifications and the identities of all three groupings and (more importantly) the very specialized ‘financial crises’ and associated economic phenomena associated with the manipulation of the former two groups by the latter. 

For the moment here are the identities of the first two classes of players in the Grand Game of the IFM.  The “Dupes” are the entire Political Class of ALL countries who serve the latter group.  The “Dopes” are the citizenry of ALL countries who are secondarily duped by the primarily duped “Dupes.”

It is my opinion that the latter group is actually calling the shots in the European Debt-Crisis on a daily basis and that this is ineluctably proven by the very next news item.  This specially contrived ‘Surprise’ event was a VERY special “Thanksgiving“ present for the entire world but most especially for the German Nation by the latter group.

November 23, 2011 - A German (Highest Government debt rating in Europe) bond auction failed with 35% no bids (rumored to actually have been 50% failed bids), while just after that an Italian (almost lowest

Government debt rating in Europe, just above the other GIIPS) Bond auction sold out?

Does anybody wonder why?

There is an answer, and knowing it explains all things.  So, here is a hint:

#1 Reread our Blog of 11/21, 

#2 As we said then, we have it on the best of authority (from the ONLY authority on these things) that there will be a monetary AND a fiscal Union of Europe beginning in 2012 and all the attendant financial machinations of that 'Surprise' mentioned in the Blog of 11/21 WILL then miraculously and fully materialize in all the markets of the world,

#3 and we emphasize ALL machinations of the markets will materialize but most especially the horrific ‘end-game’ noted at the very end of that Blog.

For those companies who will be tricked into the wrong Marketing & Advertising strategies and the wrong inventory-builds at the wrong times in future Qtrs. we do surely lament.  They will be fooled into thinking that all is clear by the very last consumer buying-surge in the spring and summer of 2012 that will NOT last. 

From that ‘false’ surge will be promulgated ’false’ projections that will be based on totally falsely concocted and artificially constructed economic metrics by the “Failed” Professional Economist Class (PEC) that never saw the Credit-Crisis of 2007-08 and have no clue that this is a systemic and Long-wave “Kondratieff” down turn. 

Their empty and completely foreseeable balderdash will be supported by the corrupted economic data that will be issuing from the US Commerce Department in the spring, summer and fall of 2012.

But you and your company need not be blindsided by the resurgence of the consumer in the spring and summer of 2012.  And you can avoid the rather dismal future of the consumer and ALL companies that are dependent on them, when they are all TOTALLY slaughtered in subsequent periods.

The truth of our projections Is made ABUNDANTLY clear by the failed German bond auction on 11/23 and by the following article from which it is very plain that all the “Dupes” in Europe are being ‘brought in line’ to ‘toe the line’ and that ALL the “Dopes” around the world in all the stock markets of the world are being set up for the above noted ‘Surprise’ events in the EU debt crisis that will ignite the world's stock and bond markets next year:

Stocks Advance on Europe Outlook

Bloomberg: By Rob Verdonck and Nikolaj Gammeltoft - Nov 28, 2011 11:09 AM ET

“Global stocks rose . . as European leaders drafted a framework for the region’s bail-out fund and America’s Thanksgiving-weekend retail sales jumped to a record. Treasuries declined. . . .

The yield on the 10-year German bund advanced four basis points (NOW, in light of the failed German Bond auction the prior day, isn’t this - ONLY - 4 basis point rise truly amazing for all the “dupes” and all the “dopes” to see ---- or do “they see?”), with the similar-maturity Treasury yield jumping seven points. . . Europe’s rescue fund may insure bonds of debt-stricken countries with guarantees of 20 percent to 30 percent, . ..Treaty change is necessary to give veto power over member-state budgets to the European Union Commission, Germany’s Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said on ARD television in Berlin yesterday. U.S. retail sales over the Thanksgiving holiday climbed 16 percent to a record.

“It’s a sea of green and nothing is being left behind in this rally,” Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Philadelphia-based Janney Montgomery Scott LLC, which manages $54 billion, said in a telephone interview. “Equity prices are being powered higher by the quite good Black Friday sales (see our Blog of 11/22) in the U.S. and reports that European officials are rallying around some form of political cohesion to solve the debt crisis.”  (And here we are given a very brief glimpse of 'the 'Talking Heads' talking points in the 'Coming Attractions' in the New Year and are made a witness to the now visibly incipient (BUT it will then be labled 'miraculous') "Great Deception of 2012" that no economist will see ahead of time!)

"Loss Leader" retail strategy may fail this year!

As we further progress in these “New Normal” times of the ‘Kondratieff’ Super-Wave, the consumer will eventually become resistant to the Retailers ubiquitous ‘Loss Leader Strategy’ (LLS) as a means by which to get consumers in the door and then hope that they can be persuaded to buy what they never intended to buy in the first place, at retail full prices, thus boosting the top and the bottom lines.

We believe that this Christmas Season may very well prove to be the tipping point for the LLS’s demise.  We will ALL be watching closely the overall retail numbers.  If our belief comes true, then the bottom line for retailers utilizing this strategy will suffer – perhaps horrifically.  

Stay tuned, for we believe that it is highly probable that the consumer’s newly awakened sales resistance (and their commensurate adoption of the behavior of a CFSS hugely facilitated by social media) will become apparent this Christmas Season.

Stay Tuned!

Black Friday Sales ’About Same’ as 2010

Bloomberg; By Matt Townsend and Ashley Lutz - Nov 25, 2011 8:31 AM ET

Advertisements for Black Friday specials from various retailers. Black Friday arrived with consumer sentiment at levels previously reached during recessions, as a record share of households said this is a bad time to spend, according to the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index. . .

From Mall of America in Bloomington, Minnesota, to The Galleria in Houston, retailers unleashed a blizzard of deals as Black Friday -- the biggest shopping day of the year -- got off to its earliest start ever. The discounting has been more widespread than last year as retailers tried to woo shoppers spooked by global economic uncertainty and stagnant job growth. . . .

. . according to the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index. The measure has reached minus 50 or less in nine of the past 10 weeks, an unprecedented performance in its 26-year history.

Economists are SOOOO "BLIND," "DEAF" and "DUMB"

Well, well, does any economist out there get it yet?

After reading yesterday's Blog and the following article's excerpted tidbits, readers who have a sense of the 'real world'  economic landscape that businesses face in the fall of 2011 will readily recognize that the answer is, ""Apparently not!"

But, I am certain of one thing.

 

When the full force, of the fast-approaching, “Kondratieff Super-Wave” drowns the economists and everybody that has followed them in a “sea of worthless bonds and worthless fiat currencies” utterly destroying them, their friends and their businesses with “exploding interest rates,” THEN they will claim that:

“Nobody could have seen this coming!”

And that is exactly why Polestar Communications is going public with this Blog, this website, our yearly forecasts and monthly and daily e-mail alerts – by subscription only. 

When these now ordained and inescapable economic disasters envelop the world in 201(?), this time a record of great prescient accuracy will have been ineluctably established, from which it will become clear to one and to all, that economics – as currently practiced in the “Ivory Towers” - is of very little real value in the “Real World.”    

Consumer Spending, Durable Orders Signal Slowdown in U.S. Growth

Bloomberg; By Shobhana Chandra and Alex Kowalski - Nov 23, 2011 11:25 AM ET

“ More Americans than forecast filed for unemployment benefits last week. Applications for jobless insurance increased 2,000 in the week ended Nov. 19 to 393,000. . . 

Americans pulled back on spending in October and manufacturers received fewer orders for durable goods, tempering expectations for a pickup in economic growth in the fourth quarter.

Consumer purchases, which account for 70 percent of the economy, increased 0.1 percent after a 0.7 percent gain in September, . . . Unemployment stuck near 9 percent and confidence at recession levels prompted consumers to curb spending  . . . “We’re looking at holiday spending that won’t be great, but probably not a washout,” said Robert Dye, chief economist at Comerica Inc. in Dallas. “It’s an economy that still refuses to give strong, clear signals of recovery. Weaker global macroeconomic conditions are beginning to exert a drag on manufacturing.”

. . . Reports from Europe and Asia today added to concerns that the global expansion is faltering. European services and manufacturing shrank further, industrial orders had the biggest drop in almost three years and China’s factories showed signs of contraction.

. . . The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index was minus 50.1 in the week ended Nov. 20, compared with minus 50 a week earlier. The measure has been at minus 50 or less for nine of the past 10 weeks, a performance unprecedented in its 26-year history.

Thirty-five percent of those surveyed last week said it was a bad time to buy needed goods and services, tying the record set in January 1991. Twenty-three percent said their own finances were in “poor” shape, matching a record set three times in the past three years.

… Retailers like Macy’s Inc. (M) and Kohl’s Corp. have said they plan to use more discounts to lure shoppers. . . . More affluent consumers are holding up “pretty well,” . . . 

Other retailers are less optimistic as unemployment has hovered near or above 9 percent for more than two years and companies limit hiring. . . “

"OVER the PRECIPICE" - YET AGAIN!

Well, the following "Terrifying" article and the tidbits therein are greatly elucidating and are most horribly confirming our direst fear and our many predictions of NOT only the direction that this economy is now ordained to follow, BUT the complete inability of those who claim to understand these things, (by virtue of their training - Economists), to most clearly comprehend what is actually happening around them in this Once Great Country!   

Namely, a rather smart guy gets it!

But, 81 economists do NOT get it!

Are you and your company really committed to following these “Blind,” “Deaf” and “Dumb” academicians over the precipice  - yet again?

Or would you like to get a real grip on what is happening in this economy that is in the midst of a “Kondratieff” downturn of truly immense magnitude, with horrific consequences for ALL those who don’t get it?

BBA Alert #1 - This Nation is NOT coming out of anything.  This Nation is still in the grips of a systemic economic down turn that commenced in 2007- 08! 

BBA Alert #2 - This Nation was NOT in a recession.  In 2007-08 this Nation entered a Depression and it is still in a Depression that is growing worse by the day.  This fact is hidden, veiled and obscured by the deceptively compiled and aggregated data that is regularly issued by the  US Commerce Department.  

For instance, the GDP numbers that are reported by the US Commerce Department INCLUDE US Government expenditures and even counting this non-producing entity, the numbers reported regularly disappoint with tiny increases in the + 1.5% range, which are actually negative by 4.5 to 6.5%!  

And that is so because the GDP as calculated by the Commerce Department - quite marvelously and wondrously - includes ALL the expenditures of the US Commerce Department itself, amongst all the other US Government agencies of questionalble value?

Now, I ask everyone out there:  Once you know these things,  Do the reported numbers of the GDP really reflect business activity in the US  - especially when one considers the indisputable fact that the US Government is the ONLY sector of this economy that is expanding in recent years, at great deleterious cost to us all, as the US Government pays for its activities by taxes or borrowing more money, thus further compounding the primary nexus of the National Dilemma - DEBT?

Does anybody out there recognize the complete and utter insanity of the reported GDP numbers supposedly actually reflecting the health of the US economy when it is - in fact - the US Government expenditures that is keeping the numbers from being HORRIBLY negative?

El-Erian: U.S. Economic Conditions ‘Terrifying’

Bloomberg; By Cordell Eddings and Betty Liu - Nov 22, 2011 9:41 AM ET

“Pacific Investment Management Co.’s Chief Executive Officer Mohamed A. El-Erian said U.S. economic conditions are “terrifying” given that the nation is coming out of recession.

The odds of the U.S. returning to recession are one-third to half, El-Erian said in a Bloomberg Television interview with Betty Liu. . . .

The median forecast of 81 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for no revision. Excluding stockpiles, so-called final sales climbed 3.6 percent, the most since last year’s fourth quarter. . . .”

Euro Monetary & Fiscal DeFacto-Union is Fait Accompli

For those “who can see” and for those “who can hear,” the last several months of horrendously scary news out of Europe has been quite entertaining.  The very specific types of rhetoric employed in all the headlines of all the news stories of MSM has one very specific purpose, i.e. to scare the S__t out of all the investors, fund managers and others in the financial markets, by which daily drumbeat of fear-mongering they will be prompted to do the wrong thing.

And then?

The supposedly most unlikely thing will quite magically happen!  Voila!  Surprise, surprise to all the “blind” and the “dumb” and the “deaf,” who have never seen these things before and are so easily fooled!

But for those who HAVE seen these machinations before and can read the “Evil Ones” of the financial back-offices - who are NEVER seen - then reading of these things and knowing the end before the end, because it has already been written, is really quite fun and very entertaining.

Translation?

We at Polestar Communications have the best and the most unimpeachable source and we do KNOW that the apparent, and much over-reported, economic turmoil of the last several months concerning the Euro, is nothing more than a huge “Charade” done for very esoteric and secret reasons that are yet to be revealed.

The translation of our comments herein; is that, there will ABSOLUTELY be a fiscal and monetary union of the European Union early next year and all the “blind” and all the “dumb” and all the “deaf” will uproariously celebrate - just before they are sacrificed to the “gods of finance” and the god of the “Evil Ones.”

Result of all this will be:

Monetary Base of the FED (already in  QE3 by then & looking ahead to QE 4) and the brand NEW European ersatz 'Fed' will quite literally EXPLODE, as this new illegal entity then begins to absorb all the Bad-Bets  of the Bad-Debts of the Bad-Bankers (BbBDBB),and quite magically transforms them into the Bad-Debts of Stupid Taxpayers (BDST) of the EU formerly independent States, which will then be paid with massively increased taxes on everything imaginable and eventually miraculously erased by the systemically invidious stealth tax of massive INFLATION!  

Voila!  Isn't Life 'Legrand?'

"Pryciysment!"  Mdm, LaGarde will then exclaim!

Because the European Banks will then be off the hook for their BbBDBB's.  And they will then massively buy the BRAND NEW illegally constructed (illegal that is, against the German Constitution) EU or EFSF or IMF sovereign debt instruments (in fact, they will be forced to do so, by their secret 'quid pro quo' agreements that allowed them to off-load their BbBDBB's to the BDST's).  In addition, per other back-door agreements with the US FED,  they will then massively buy equities in Europe and the United States (they are already moving money here for precisely that purpose), thus causing?

 

DOW  rise to 13,500 90% probability or to 14,500 50% probability (as noted in Blog of 11/18),

Gold   fall to $1,450  90% probability, or to 1,350  50% probability, or to $1,275  30% probability,

Dollar, Euro and all Fiat currencies magically float upward vs. each other & gold,

MSM in TOTAL celebratory mood,

“Sheeple” madly chasing the market,

Then?

The BbBDBB's - that were off-loaded as BDST's - will then be allowed to reach "Fair Value," specifically because the Bad Bankers don't own them anymore!  This will be accomplished by the markets as the new sovereign debt instruments of Europe and the US sovereign debt instruments crash and interest rates explode all around the world.  The monetary and fiscal measures, next employed to deal with the BDST's, will significantly then crimp all economic activity, which will reverse ALL of the above metrics rather instantly!  There will very literally be no warning for those “blind,” “dumb” and “deaf” ones, amongst whom are always the economists!  

Will you and your company be fooled and suffer irreversible harm in the next and MUCH Greater Credit-Crisis?

Euro Zone Needs ‘Momentous Deal’: Credit Suisse

By Gregory Viscusi - Nov 21, 2011 8:40 AM ET

“Euro leaders must reach “a momentous deal” toward fiscal and political union by mid- January to save the 17-nation bloc, Credit Suisse said in a note to investors.

The analysts, led by Jonathan Wilmot, the bank’s London- based chief global fixed-income strategist, also predicted the European Central Bank will move “more aggressively” to lower its benchmark 1.25 percent rate and provide banks with longer- term funds.

“In short, the fate of the euro is about to be decided,” according to the note, which was published today. . . .”

The "Great Divide" is rapidly becoming a Grand Canyon

The following alarming demographic shifts from www.russelsage.org hold immense import for all US businesses and all Advertising and Marketing campaigns and strategies in future periods.  

Just one quite dramatic effect will be that as this trend accelerates, it will dramatically affect the willingness and desire to show one's wealth to all those who have nothing! 

“New U.S. 2010 Report: Residential Income Segregation in America

November 16, 2011

“Sean F. Reardon and Kendra Bischoff of Stanford University have released a new U.S. 2010 report entitled "More Unequal and More Separate: Growth in the Residential Segregation of Families by Income, 1970-2009." Here's the abstract:

As overall income inequality grew in the last four decades, high- and low-income families have become increasingly less likely to live near one another. Mixed income neighborhoods have grown rarer, while affluent and poor neighborhoods have grown much more common. ,,,population . . .who live in the poorest and most affluent neighborhoods has more than doubled … while the share of families living in middle-income neighborhoods dropped from 65 percent to 44 percent. The residential isolation of the both poor and affluent families has grown over the last four decades, though affluent families have been generally more residentially isolated than poor families during this period.. . The increasing concentration of income and wealth (and therefore of resources such as schools, parks, and public services) in a small number of neighborhoods results in greater disadvantages for the remaining neighborhoods where low- and middle-income families live.

Writing in today's New York Times, Sabrina Tavernise says the report "raises, but does not answer, the question of whether increased economic inequality, and the resulting income segregation, impedes social mobility":

Much of the shift is the result of changing income structure in the United States. Part of the country’s middle class has slipped to the lower rungs of the income ladder as manufacturing and other middle-class jobs have dwindled,…Put simply, there are fewer people in the middle.

But the shift is more than just changes in income. The study also found that there is more residential sorting by income, with the rich flocking together in new exurbs and gentrifying pockets where lower- and middle-income families cannot afford to live.

"Great Divide" will 'Balkanize' the US

All US businessmen should be very aware that as the economic ‘Great Divide’ widens ever greater day by day, the ‘have-nots’ are going to increasingly devise ‘means and methods’ by which to purloin the wealth of the ‘haves.”

This phenomena is one that will only increase – and dramatically so – in the coming years as this once great economic powerhouse of a nation devolves into a morass of squabbling ‘atomized’ individuals and ‘Balkanized’ regions.  The essence of what it means to be an American has been under constant assault ever since 1965, when the “Immigration and Nationality Act” removed immigration quotas that had favored Western European nations. 

Since that time the “Flood Gates” of immigration from the “Third World” were opened full throttle, and the new “Americans” were not required to speak English, nor expected or even asked to assimilate in any way but have been encouraged to form tightly concentrated groups of increasingly isolated “Nativist Centers” of societal activity by sponsoring their open and constant use of their Native languages.

The other major contributing factor to the emerging sense of isolation amongst Americans is the ever sinking morality of their fellow Americans.  This most recent phenomena has been sped along by the  specious and very dangerous reasoning that underlies the Liberalist demands for complete and total  ‘Separation of Church and State.'  The ACLU Liberal's contemporary interpretation was NEVER even contemplated by the “Founders” of this once great Christian Country.   The wholesale implementation of Liberal-leaning and barbarous rules and regulations at all levels of the State and Federal Governments have resulted in an outright attack on Almighty God and His Son – The Christ, as all Christian symbols and festivals are openly denounced. 

The result is that a tragic divide has been promulgated – mainly by the educational institutions of the State - between the millions of Christians and their God and His Son – The Christ.  Almighty God, The “Father,” and “His Son," The Christ, are now quite openly ridiculed, excoriated, denied and expelled from the day to day life of Americans, with increasingly tragic results of crime, immorality, abortions, illicit and sick sexual activities, quite unimaginable levels of easy access by all ages and all classes to a literal explosion of vile pornography and systemic adoption of arrogantly anti-Christian behavior of outright rudeness and prideful denial of all others that is TOTALLY foreign to Americans over fifty and a ubiquitously expressed and believed sense of “what’s right for me is RIGHT, right NOW!”

Such beliefs of ‘moral equivalence’ form the bedrock of the moral code of ‘Human Secularism,’ which is the ‘cult’ of the Godless and the self-righteous progeny of Monkeys – who no longer know that they were once children of Almighty God. 

As the Apostle Paul said, “Before the END, first, there will be a great falling away!’”

So, the result of all the above is a societal and cultural and economic devolution that is upon us all.  Its signs are a loss of Morality, total abrogation of a universal sense of what is Right and what is Wrong, disdainful abandonment of all Moral and Civic Duty, ridicule of Patriotism and the utter shredding of the US Constitution, which regally and divinely inspired document is being openly assaulted daily and has been essentially destroyed by such things as the insanely constructed “Patriot Act” of 2001.

So, as this once great Nation and its once great economy totally devolves  - over the next very few years, complete with all the appearances of a ‘Third World’ nation - all US businessmen should be on a high level of alert for behavior amongst their employees such as is revealed in this article.

These are new days and these are new Americans, with nothing much more than a strong sense of entitlement holding them together! 

NY Steakhouse Waiters Stole Card Data, DA Says

Bloomberg; By Tiffany Kary - Nov 19, 2011 12:01 AM ET

“Waiters at Smith & Wollensky, the Capital Grille and other New York area restaurants copied customers’ credit cards and passed them on to a crime ring that bought luxury goods, prosecutors said.

The midtown Manhattan dining room at Smith & Wollensky, the steakhouse chain, is where 81-year-old billionaire Warren Buffett, the chief executive officer of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., takes the winner of his annual charity auction for lunch.

Charges against 28 people were announced yesterday by Manhattan District Attorney Cyrus Vance Jr.’s office. . . .Merchandise from outlets such as Chanel, Bloomingdale’s and Bergdorf Goodman, including $1 million worth of watches, . . Vance said the case was far from unique. . . . Waiters used credit-card skimming devices to steal account numbers, then passed on the information to Luis Damian Jacas, who oversaw the operation, the district attorney alleged. . . .

Also charged were about 10 “shoppers” who were given forged credit cards and sometimes drivers’ licenses, using them at Neiman Marcus, Cartier, Hermes of Paris, Burberry, Jimmy Choo and Starbucks, authorities said.

Shopping trips were made in Manhattan, Westchester County, Nassau County, Florida, Boston and Chicago, the DA’s complaint said. . .”

Prediction: DOW 14,500 by May-Sept 2012

After you have watched very intently and examined very discretely the flow of what passes for economic news in this country for several decades, while at the same time cataloging the accuracy of the mainstream economic pundit’s prognostications that are made from their review of that very same news, then you can very easily see what lies ahead in the economy and the markets by simply reviewing their ‘professional review’ of the streaming nonsense that passes for economic data and econometric based 'pontifications' that are fed daily to the masses by the MSM, so as to move them to always be in the wrong investment at the wrong time. 

Today’s example of the above phenomena is especially revealing as to how thoroughly deceitful or economically naïve or simply stupid the economic pundits are, that are trotted out by the MSM.  Whether or not these things are true, it does become quite entertaining to watch their prognostications flow as they effusively comment on the 'patently false' and misleading economic data that they are fed.  

Once, you have mastered the very essential skill-set of 'reading their scripts,' then you too will see that the masses are being – right now – set up for a DOW rally to roughly the 14,500 level in the May to September time-frame of 2012.

From an analysis of the 'real' economic data flow and our very own econometric models, we are quite certain that AFTER the DOW reaches roughly the 14.500 area, then a crash of truly monumental proportions and devastating consequences and with cataclysmic effect for all the country will ensue, because ALL the data points that are even now being fabricated are specious – beyond comprehension.

Doubt us?

Just watch!

Leading Economic Indicators in U.S. Climb

Bloomberg; By Bob Willis - Nov 18, 2011 10:12 AM ET

“. . . The index of U.S. leading indicators climbed more than forecast in October, signaling the world’s largest economy will keep growing (If GDP were calculated correctly, then recent qtrs would be NEGATIVE) in early 2012.

The Conference Board’s (Did these guys see RE "Bubble" that caused the Credit-Crisis of 2008) gauge of the outlook for the next three to six months rose 0.9 percent, the biggest jump since February, after a 0.1 percent September increase, the New York- based research group said today. . .

Gains in consumer spending, manufacturing and homebuilding, combined with fewer job losses (fewer than What qtr. – pray tell?), point to an economy that is weathering the turbulence in financial markets.

“The economy looks to be getting better despite the continued drumbeat of negativity (actually it is the continued drumbeat of “reality,” for those who are actually living through this nightmare!) in financial markets,” said Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York, who correctly forecast the gain. “That speaks to U.S. resiliency. If we can put some of these fiscal issues behind us, even for a short period of time, we might be able to come back.”

… Nine of the 10 components of the leading index contributed to the increase in October, led a jump in building permits (we need more housing units?), the spread between short- and long-term interest rates, (which rates have been amorally, and insanely ‘twisted’ by the machinations of the FED to artificially create this false ‘marker of confidence,’ because if it weren’t for the FED’s ‘twisting’ operations, then the narrow spread would be HUGE - and THEY know it!) a longer factory workweek and a drop in claims for jobless benefits.

A surge in stock prices also contributed to the increase in the gauge last month, reversing September’s plunge.. . 

(Who is buying stock besides the PPT and Goldman Sachs?)

‘Positive Signs’

“In North America, we see a slow recovery (from what level?) continuing,” Ellen Kullman, chairman and chief executive officer of DuPont Co., said in an Oct. 25 conference call. “While there are issues (Issues? See note below) of unemployment and weak consumer confidence, there are also some positive signs such as rising retail and automotive sales. Industrial protection is growing.” (What "Industry" does America have left to protect? We really have only two left.  And Boeing is out-sourcing and off-shoring to ‘beat the band’ while Caterpillar is strong ONLY because the business of extracting Gold and Silver from the earth is exploding, as everyone in the entire world - EXCEPT Americans - realizes that their ‘fiat’ currencies are soon to be TOAST and they had better get some real money - and quick!)

The job market is one area yet to see much improvement. Payrolls increased 80,000 in October, the smallest advance in four months, the Labor Department said Nov. 4. The unemployment rate fell to 9 percent from 9.1 percent in September. It’s hovered around 9 percent or more since April 2009. (IF, unemployment were calculated by methods utilized in the ‘Reagan Era,’ then the 9% noted here would actually be closer to 16.5% and if all those who wish to be fully emplyed were actually counted then the numbers are closer to 22.5 to 24%.  In other words, Depression-Era unemployment numbers are here in America right now!)

"Golden Years" are now "Trashed"

So, NOW on 11/16/11 the fundamental analysis of the macro-economic forces of the "Kondratieff" Long-Wave that are now sweeping over the world's landscape and that have conditioned and molded Polestar Communication’s prophecies of continually eroding aggregate purchasing power and less and less income for discretionary spending and ever constricting money flows for non-discretionary spending and a resultant and massive negative shift of the American consumer’s psychology are becoming evident and should actually no longer be in doubt.

Namely, from the following poll and article:

#1 we know that the average American now knows that they will be forced to work until they drop dead, 

#2 we know that the younger generations of Americans now are most painfully aware that they will have far fewer job opportunities, simply because Gramps and Granny must work until they die,

#3 therefore, ALL generations of Americans are going to come under severe psychological stresses of “Cognitive Dissonance” as the concept of the “American Dream” becomes the reality of the “New American Nightmare.”

This will lead to massive negative shifts in mass consumer psychology and behavior!

Is your company ready for the changes that are very clearly now ahead of us?

“80 is the new 65 when it comes to retirement, survey says

CHICAGO (Reuters) 11/16/11 by Karin Matz - When it comes to retirement, many middle class Americans said 80 is the new 65 and plan to delay retirement because of worries over money, according to a new survey.. . .

Three-fourths of those surveyed said they expect to work in their retirement years. One quarter said they will "need to work until at least age 80" to live comfortably in retirement.. .

"That raises a lot of social and economic implications. Will they have the physical ability to work, the mental capacity? What does that mean for the younger work force in terms of coming through and looking to get ahead?"

. . .In terms of saving for retirement, 53 percent of those surveyed said they need to significantly cut back on spending now to save for retirement.

"People are overwhelmed. They're not saving enough," Ready said.

. . . "For several years now, we've seen that Americans are undersaving for retirement and a majority do not trust the stock market as a place to invest for retirement," Ready said.. . “

More Free $ to the Banksters

Now, it is becoming very clear why the US Banks will be back at the US Government’s public feeding trough.  As is made very clear in the final quoted paragraph of this article, their Trillions of Dollars of CDS’s will NOT cover their losses if any of the GIIPS debt is “voluntarily” written off! 

Anyone wish to hazard a really wild guess, just who will be forced to cover these BAD-BETS of these BAD-DEBTS of these BAD-Bankers?

That’s right!

You and me – the American taxpayer will once again fund their losses totally by allowing the FED to print tens of Billions of more electronic book-entry cash and just giving it to these extremely needy supplicants!     

U.S. Banks Face Contagion Risk From Europe Debt

Bloomberg; By Dakin Campbell - Nov 17, 2011 7:30 AM ET

“…Unless the euro zone debt crisis is resolved in a timely and orderly manner, the broad credit outlook for the U.S. banking industry could worsen,” the New York-based rating company said yesterday in a statement. Even as U.S. banks have “manageable” exposure to stressed European markets, “further contagion poses a serious risk,” Fitch said, without explaining what it meant by contagion.

The “exposures” of U.S. lenders to major European banks and the stressed nations of Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain, known as the GIIPS, are smaller than those to some of the continent’s larger countries, Fitch said.

The six biggest U.S. banks -- JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), Bank of America Corp. (BAC), Citigroup Inc. (C), Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC), Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley (MS) -- had $50 billion in risk tied to the GIIPS on Sept. 30, Fitch said.. .  .

While U.S. banks have hedged some of their risk with credit-default swaps, those may not be effective if voluntary debt forgiveness becomes “more prevalent” and the insurance provisions of the instruments aren’t triggered, Fitch said in the report. The top five U.S. banks had $22 billion in hedges tied to stressed markets, according to Fitch. . . . ‘