1st Warning for 2nd Half of 2014

For those who don’t know us: our lack of posts to this FREE Blog over the last many months does NOT indicate that we are dead or too dumbfounded to post anything.

 

Oh No!  Actually it is just the opposite.  All of our many predictions and forecasts over the last five years are all coming true – right on schedule. 

 

#1 The US economy is still contracting at roughly 4 to 6% per year, when one calculates the GDP accurately, with rate of inflation that we all have to deal with in the real world that is actually around 7 to 9.5%, before exploding in 2015 and into 2016.

 

#2 All of our earlier prognostications are coming true right on schedule, e.g. we predicted 17,000 on the DOW in the Fall of 2014 two years ago:  and the DOW is still on the way to 25,000 in the latter half of 2016, slightly leading the incipient Bond Bubble IMPLOSION that will precipitate the second wave of the Super Tsunami Kondratieff Long-Wave that will NOT be seen in advance by any of the economic pundits, Federal Reserve Officials, politicos, pumpkin & potato heads, charlatans, sycophants and assorted other fools that led this nation into the Real Estate HELL of 2007 through 2011.

 

#3 The second wave of the Super Tsunami Kondratieff Long-Wave will then crash over all our heads - all over the earth - with much greater economic upheavals than were seen in the Credit-Crisis of 2007/08. 

 

#4 We are still waiting for one more downturn in Gold to $950 an oz sometime this summer.  But this final manipulated crash may not come: and we are certain that this is the next to last year of gold under $2,000 per oz.; before it skyrockets to well over $5,000 per oz. as the second wave of the Super Tsunami Kondrateiff Long-Wave breaks over all the economies of this earth

 

BUT, guess what?

 

Just like last time in 2004 through 2008, there are other rather erudite and perceptive entities out there that are also getting ready for the inevitable.

 

 The BIS (Bank For International Settlements) is issuing somber warnings almost of the same tenure and tone as those that they issued in the halcyon days of 2004-2006.

People did not listen then.

Will they listen now?  


And are you and your company getting ready?? 


IF not, why NOT???!!!???

 

http://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/ar2014e.htm

 

84th BIS Annual Report, 2013/2014

A new policy compass is needed to help the global economy step out of the shadow of the Great Financial Crisis. This will involve adjustments to the current policy mix and to policy frameworks with the aim of restoring sustainable and balanced economic growth.

The global economy has shown encouraging signs over the past year but it has not shaken off its post-crisis malaise (Chapter III). Despite an aggressive and broad-based search for yield, with volatility and credit spreads sinking towards historical lows (Chapter II), and unusually accommodative monetary conditions (Chapter V), investment remains weak. Debt, both private and public, continues to rise while productivity growth has extended further its long-term downward trend (Chapters III and IV). There is even talk of secular stagnation. Some banks have rebuilt capital and adjusted their business models, while others have more work to do (Chapter VI).

To return to sustainable and balanced growth, policies need to go beyond their traditional focus on the business cycle and take a longer-term perspective - one in which the financial cycle takes centre stage (Chapter I). They need to address head-on the structural deficiencies and resource misallocations masked by strong financial booms and revealed only in the subsequent busts. The only source of lasting prosperity is a stronger supply side. It is essential to move away from debt as the main engine of growth.
Overview of the economic chapters

84th Annual Report by chapter

Table of contents, letter of transmittal		5 pages
I. In search of a new compass	15 pages

The global economy has shown encouraging signs over the past year. But its malaise persists, as the legacy of the Great Financial Crisis and the forces that led up to it remain unresolved. More...

II. Global financial markets under the spell of monetary policy

17 pages

Financial markets have been acutely sensitive to monetary policy, both actual and anticipated. Throughout the year, accommodative monetary conditions kept volatility low and fostered a search for yield. More...

III. Growth and inflation: drivers and prospects

23 pages

World economic growth has picked up, with advanced economies providing most of the uplift, while global inflation has remained subdued. Despite the current upswing, growth in advanced economies remains below pre-crisis averages. More...

IV. Debt and the financial cycle: domestic and global

19 pages

Financial cycles encapsulate the self-reinforcing interactions between perceptions of value and risk, risk-taking and financing constraints, which translate into financial booms and busts. Financial cycles tend to last longer than traditional business cycles. More...

V. Monetary policy struggles to normalise

18 pages

Monetary policy has remained very accommodative while facing a number of tough challenges. First, in the major advanced economies, central banks struggled with an unusually sluggish recovery and signs of diminished monetary policy effectiveness. More...

VI. The financial system at a crossroads

19 pages

The financial sector has gained some strength since the crisis. Banks have rebuilt capital (mainly through retained earnings) and many have shifted their business models towards traditional banking. More...

The BIS: mission, activities, governance and financial results

119 pages

Middle Class Evisceration

I am a child of the middle class and our family shopped at Sears and JC Penney and Kmart.

When I have said on these blogs and on our website  www.polestarcomm.com  that the middle class is dying, I just concluded these things not only from my own observations down here in Sarasota Florida but from our nation wide canvassing surveys that have been extremely accurate in all prior periods.

 

But here follows what is  - IMO - incontrovertible evidence of these things:  and the news from Radio Shack just this AM supports our conclusions.

Now, if you can’t extrapolate the impacts of these macro-economic shifts on your business, then you had better subscribe to our services: and I would suggest you do this now,  before the  proverbial SH-T starts Hitting the Fan, which will begin just ahead of when the 2^nd Wave of the Super Tsunami Kondratieff Long-Waves  breaks over your head!

http://beluscapitaladvisors.com/2013/10/21/sears-vanishing-minds-shocking-14-photos/

http://www.businessinsider.com/photos-inside-jcpenney-2014-1

http://www.businessinsider.com/photos-insider-kmart-2013-11

In my opinion, these stores are dying because the middle class is being gradually suffocated and will eventually be extinguished in this country.

The primary, yet totally unrecognized, reason is that the first of three Super Tsunami Kondratieff Long-Waves has wracked macro-economic chaos in the middle class life styles of Americans; and their spending habits to support those life styles will never be the same as those seen in the latter half of the 20^th Century!

And there are yet two more waves of the Super Tsunami Kondratieff Long-Waves to break over all the world’s economies in the not too distant future.  If you would like timing on these things then go to our Contact Page and sign up for our services, because I guarantee you that the Potato and Pumpkin Heads on you FV’s (Funny Visions) and all of the economic pundits will have no clue of these things!

The following synoptic observation is how I originally wrote about just one of the social phenomena that will accompany this dramatic series of alterations to the American Retail Landscape. 

I first wrote this in the midst of the Credit-Crisis in March of 2008, and then posted it to our website in October of 2011.  This is from our New Normal web page at www.polestarcomm.com and everything written herein still stands – IMO!

The "Age of Frugality"

Any company that ignores the emotional impact of this “New Normal” on the average US consumer or investor will likely see their market share progressively shrink and their corporate visibility diminish. 'Value' will become the consumer’s watchword, as they will no longer spend impulsively or carelessly giving birth to a totally new consumer class - 'Mission Shoppers.'  Shopping will become a 'Mission,' whereby a consumer will sally forth to purchase a specific product or service and not venture out aimlessly in a whimsical pursuit of things. 

The American consumer binge is NOW over and the 'Age of Frugality' has begun.  Sometime after the winter of 2012/13 will begin the collapse of all markets.  ...

 (These original projections of ours were extended over five times: we were forced to do so by the continual extension of the FED's ZIRP - by the Panicked Banking Authorities.  Therefore, we were forced to extend the projected timing of the ultimate Mother of All Crashes out to roughly the summer 2016!)

... After the "Great Deception of 2012" has been fully played out and ever more Trillions of dollars of investor capital has been 'smoked,' all businesses will have to cope with a consumer that will be totally focused on buying only what they need - when they need it.  Except for the super-rich (and there will be many fewer of them in the future), the days of just 'Shopping to Shop' are going to be replaced with 'Shopping to Survive.'  The mission of the new class of 'Mission Shoppers' will be to buy ONLY what they need and not what someone else thinks they should buy.  Therefore, only those companies that fulfill a need and not a desire will survive this new age.

After the bursting of the final 'Bubble' - The 'Bond Bubble' - investors will be finished with stocks and bonds and houses and will be totally intent on survival. In the coming economic debacle, other than inflation hedges and stores of value, investors will become too frightened to invest in anything.

In this now imminent fragile economic environment, consumer and investor behavior will respond best to those Marketing and Advertising 'messages' that recognize the “New Normal’ by offering solace, support and solutions to the exigencies of the day that promise to become much more severe than anyone now suspects possible.

 

  

Everything is RIPPING Along!!!

Ok Folks.  We have been very engaged in ours and client projects, but will make a few updates here.  Our advantage is that our thoughts are based on secular and generational trends and cycles that are never in need of revision:

# 1 American economy is in Super Tsunami Kondratieff Downturn that will last approximately twenty five more years.

#2 Inflation for everything that we need to live is literally ripping along at roughly 9 to 13 % a year, and will very soon accelerate to well over 20%, or so.  The examples are just so numerous that I literally don’t have the time and unless your maid or your butler does the shopping and pays your bills, you already know these things, anyway!

For instance, nails, screws, asphalt shingles, lumber, all food, insurance and medical care and floor tiles and tires and windshield wipers and razor blades are all going to be too expensive to buy anymore - for most people, .e.g I just paid $0.68 for a rather unexceptional screw at my local Rip Off Hardware store, and $24 for a pack of stupid razor blades, which I will never buy again!!

And in the same week I paid $6.88 for three (that is 3!!) Ambrosia apples!!!!

Do any of you guys out there realize, even yet, that the US Commerce Department inflation numbers are outright LIES?

#3 Because the USCD GDP numbers are incorporating totally false inflation numbers of 1.5 to 2.5 % in their calculations of the US GDP, the real US GDP numbers are not 2 to 3% up per year!! 

Rather they are down 5 to 7% -- and dropping rapidly every day!!

Nevertheless, as we first projected on March the 16^th of 2009 (and put up here in Oct 2011) the Dow Jones is going to go to the moon – and now to Pluto!!

Our current projections on these things are Dow Jones 25,000 by summer 2016!

Gold probably still goes to $925 sometime this year and then goes to $3,000 to $7,000 per ounce sometime in 2016 to 2019.

Aggregate retail sales will continue to plummet, as the middle class continues to evaporate and demand for all things continues to collapse!

And as we wrote about two and three years ago on these blogs, virtually all the world is going to buy stocks.

And this article proves it!

Get ready folks for the economic Roller Coaster Ride of your life!  If you need any further insights subscribe to our services.  Or since everything unfolding before your eyes is just as we predicted, go back and read all our free blogs.

From: http://seekingalpha.com/article/2059673-nyse-margin-debt-reaches-record-451_30-billion-in-january-with-risk-rank-at-no-10?source=email_macro_view_mar_out_5_5&ifp=0

NYSE Margin Debt Reaches Record $451.30 Billion In January, With Risk Rank At No. 10

It Ain't Just Detroit -- Folks!!

Latest posts have yielded many critiques from the blind among us, which is one reason that I cut way back on these Free Blogs earlier in the year.

BUT, in the interest of defending my very recent posts, here is a response to those of you who, stated:

“OH man, everyone knows Detroit is in trouble, but the rest of the country ain’t that bad!”

http://deadmalls.com/stories.html

And, second of all, please remember that you (and the rest of the world) have only experienced the FIRST OF THREE WAVES of the Super Tsunami Kondratieff Long-Waves!!!

 

And I talk to people all over this country every day, and I assure you that the economy is every bit as bad, and in fact much, worse than I and others think that it is!

However, there are currently very isolated HotSpots associated with the Bakken Oil Field, Fracking and reemerging Real Estate mania that will END VERY BADLY in the 2^nd Wave of the Super Tsunami Kondratieff Long- Waves!!!

And, I clearly predicted the new RE Mania 3 years ago, that is completely phony, because it is entirely based on still too high RE prices, and nobody having anywhere to put their money to work with the FED’s insanely structured ZIRP, except collectable cars and RE and Stocks!!

Don’t you guys get what the FED has been doing --  yet?

And, Please, read all my many earlier posts on this insanely ignited RE phenomena that will only seem to be a rally in prices, BUT will not be so in inflation adjusted terms, with the real inflation rate right now raging between 7% to 13% per year and soon to explode.

And as for Fracking!!  

<Mark my words!!  This is a huge gamble and a disastrous environmental nightmare in the making propagated by Greedy Big Oil, which I do address in my paid for updates, i.e. HINT, HINT --buy water companies and companies that can address the new wave of huge earthquakes soon to rock this country, and anywhere else that engages in this totally insane and truly bizarre drilling and extractive technique that will end many things as we think we knew them!

http://deadmalls.com/stories.html

Am I a Cassandra?

Am I a hopelessly hide-bound and negatively biased Cassandra?

Well, before you guys answer that, How about reading the following observations about the Macro-economic events of the last five years from someone who just might know a lot more about these things than YOU?

This is from today’s Opinion page of the New York Times.

I severely edited this and, therefore, give you the URL for the full article, because the NYT is so very sensitive about what they consider to be outright copying of their otherwise worthless Mind Drivel.

However, as I have admitted in the past, to Cover their A_ses, the MSM will often print quite helpful and accurate articles.

Here follows one – IMO!!

  http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/19/opinion/gordon-brown-stumbling-toward-the-next-crash.html?_r=0

Op-Ed Contributor

Stumbling Toward the Next Crash

By GORDON BROWN

Published: December 18, 2013

LONDON — In early October 2008, three weeks after the Lehman Brothers collapse, I met in Paris with leaders of the countries in the euro zone. Oblivious to the global dimension of the financial crisis, they took the view that if there was fallout for Europe, America would be to blame — so it would be for America to fix. I was unable to convince them that half of the bundled subprime-mortgage securities that were about to blow up had landed in Europe and that euro-area banks were, in fact, more highly leveraged than America’s.
Despite the subsequent decision of the Group of 20 in 2009 on the need for rules to supervise what is now a globally integrated financial system, world leaders have spent the last five years in retreat, ….
The economist David Miles, who sits on the monetary policy committee of the Bank of England, may exaggerate when he forecasts financial crises every seven years, but most of the problems that caused the 2008 crisis — excessive borrowing, shadow banking and reckless lending — have not gone away. Too-big-to-fail banks have not shrunk; they’ve grown bigger. Huge bonuses that encourage reckless risk-taking by bankers remain the norm. ….
………… (I deleted roughly 70% of  this article, to avoid the charge of utilizing copyrighted material, which you guys should in fact go and read:  IF, you want to understand in some detail exactly why another and huger and much more devastating CRASH is imminent in roughly winter 2015/16 to summer fall of 2016)……… 
In short, precisely what world leaders sought to avoid — a global financial free-for-all, enabled by ad hoc, unilateral actions — is what has happened. Political expediency, a failure to think and act globally, and a lack of courage to take on vested interests are pushing us inexorably toward the next crash.
Gordon Brown, a Labour member of the British Parliament, is a former chancellor of the Exchequer and prime minister.

What Destruction? you have asked? Look at this!!

In my last post, I noted that the Super Tsunami Kondratieff  Long-Waves are bringing on a period of Creative Destruction.

Now I received many inquiries that asked,  "What Destruction are you referring to?"

To which I replied, "The destruction of this once vibrant and expansively exciting American economy, from sea to shining sea!"

You see, by the time I was eighteen, I  had lived in nine states from Alaska to Florida; and back then, the 50's and 60's, all of America had a sense of buoyant and boundless enthusiasm.

For broad swaths of America that sense of positive, enthusiastic energy filled optimism is DEAD!

Look at this photographic montage of Detroit and then be aware that these photos could be shot tomorrow in any one of hundreds of cities and towns all across this land!

http://www.weather.com/travel/modern-ruins-abandoned-Detroit-photos-20130715

This montage presents the face of DESTRUCTION!

In my update I will address the Creative aspect of this phenomenon.

Revised Update to all things in a couple of weeks!!

Well, Hello folks.  How have you all been?

We have been run ragged with a full portfolio of projects.

Given that all of our projections and predictions going back to March of 2009 and the fall of 2011 are ordained by the facts on the ground, we have not had to update anything since our last post of several months ago.

#1 Fed is still cranking their FMMM (Fed Magic Money Machine),
#2 Fed is now joined by all Central Banks of the world (especially BOJ) in a stealth and secretively executed Currency War Of The Ages, 
#3 Therefore, for Americans and American companies -- understanding our economic landscape is of critical importance,
#4 So, Dow Jones still headed toward 21,500 in spring to summer of 2016,
#5 Short-term Gold still headed toward $930 per ounce in summer of 2014, and then $3,000 to $7,000 per ounce in 2016 to 2019,
#6 American economy still contracting at roughly 3 to 7%, when one calculates the GDP correctly by incorporating the real inflation rate of 7 to 13% -- for those things that Americans need to buy to live, (apparently that does not include anything that the US CD measures!),
#7 All American companies should be peddle to metal to meet the demand of the resuscitated and blind sheeple DCBF's (Debt Crazed Buying Fanatics) over the coming 7 to 9 quarters, but for only certain industry and market segments that we clearly identify for our paying clients.

So, in the upcoming update every one of our projections will stay the same -- except that we are raising the Dow Jones target to roughly 22,500 in the spring to summer of 2016.

Remember folks,  the FED just telegraphed that some form of the QE's will probably remain in force for the next decade!

And in the upcoming  update we will cover the very real opportunities that  exist in this market that are being missed by the majority of companies.

Namely, due to the ongoing and raging Kondratieff Long-Waves (we are still only in the trough between the first and second of three waves), we are all in a period of Creative Destruction that will persist for the next twenty years at least, and apparently not one economist knows it, yet!

Now, on these free blogs we will not be too forthcoming, but will pull back the curtain on this just a bit, i.e. there do exist very real dynamics that afford every one and every company the chance to make Big Money, and to help many of the less fortunate and perceptive among us, over the next ten to twenty years!

Stay tuned!  

Ba DEE -- b DEE -- BaDEE --

That 's ALL Folks!