The last full blown Kondratieff Long-Wave contraction occurred in the 30's.
The next Kondratieff Long-Wave finally commenced in 2007-08, after being delayed by several foolish and ultimately unsuccessful interdictions of the US Monetary and Fiscal authorities.
Its reemergence is now ordained with the FED's insanely structured ZIRP! Therefore, the Kondratieff's full impact is due to reassert itself in the next 18 to 36 months.
If you want to know more: go to, www.polestarcomm.com
Re: Market Makers >>> and Head-Jerking Crashes and Head-Jerking Rallies.
On 3/16/09 I gave an ALL Out Buy Signal, which I maintained through thick and thin - year after year - on the UPside until just last month!
Then I gave MY First All Out Sell Signal On 2/2/20 >> I said Black Swan = Sell Everything and buy Puts!!
I really took it on the chin on that one from absolutely everybody especially as the Market even rallied for another week?
But then the Crash of ALL CRASHES!!
Then on 3/23/20 >>> I said Sell ALL shorts and GOOOOOOOO LOOONG on everything = Everything!!
I really took it on the chin - yet again - on that one as well. But, then the Rally of ALL RALLIES >>> immediately commenced and it is still going strong and will get even stronger yet!
And all you guys: just see what they have in store for you on the UPSIDE >>> next Week; for, that is When the Bears and their cubs will ALL be carried out on stretchers!!
Now, Why did I see things?
I'll give a little hint here:
Many years ago when I was a Broker I had accounts that were personal friends of Joseph Granville; and I learned a lot and created an even more powerfully predictive On Balance Volume Metric!
My refined OBV Metric is finally tuned to catch predictively Monster Moves that have been set up in preceding days and weeks, either way; and largely weighted by opening and closing actions, because >>> that is where the Crooks of Wall Street Show their Hand !
As most of you reading this Blog have known for years: I have been Bearish on Gold for over six years.
But THIS IS A NEW DAY FOR ALL MONIES OF ALL TYPES AND >>> with the printing of Trillions and Trillions and Trillions of brand new $$$$'s for EVERYBODY: There is only one position to hold on Gold!
Bullish!!
And Goldman Sachs has just turned as well!
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/goldman-sachs-says-it-is-time-to-buy-gold-the-currency-of-last-resort-2020-03-24 Richard
RE: Posted 1030 hours >>These Guys Are JUST Too Cute!! This looks to me like there will be NOOOO additional trick to the downside!!
So, Just like it was Straight DOOOOOOwn from 28,000 on Dow!! Now it will be straight UUUUUUP back to 28,000!!
So, you have to reverse in this madness.
Sell all Shorts!!
And what ever your total position was to have been on the upside put in about 15% now and 15% (EDITED Tuesday After the SCR* Close!! Make this addition of your total Long Position >>> 25% with each day of gains over 1,200!! Because These F_ckers are obviously in one HELL of a HURRY before the Hoi polloi catch on!!)*** more with every additional 1,500 points they ruuuun the Dow!
In other words just as the Bulls were F_cked on the Crash NOW the BEARS will be totally F_cked on the Humongous Rally!!! Ain't they just too cute???
But, just wait and see what the COVID19
morphs into after this massive use of what
F_cked up US Troops in Vietnam fifty years ago!!
And then the world: PER >>>>> following US Army Doc that is decades
old and intentionally buried about the creation of
chloroquine-resistant Malaria!!!
WHAT they will be doing to all of the world's population NOW
with the creation of mutated and extremely resistant Covid 2nd
generation Virus will inevitably very quickly arise and therefore,
kill many millions more.
Re: the market and all players are right now being set up for a HUGE RALLY on supposedly Good News of a miraculous cure that will prove to be a HUGE BULL TRAP in the face of rapidly deteriorating economic fundamentals.
It is more than likely that the hydroxychloroquine Panacea will prove to be a disaster, as from its implementation there will arise a new generation of a new RESISTANT COVID 19!!!
And this new RESISTANT COVID 19, which will likely be raging in 12 to 24 months, will prove to be a greater danger for Mankind!
Nonetheless, it is now quite obvious what is right now being set up in the Markets; i. e. A HEAD-JERKING RALLY OF ALL RALLIES!!!
So, the Dow Jones is right now in a very critical area. IF further support is broken Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday or Friday then everybody will conclude THAT ALL BETS ARE OFF FOR ANY LIFE IN MARKET IS OVER AND HELL IS SOON TO PAY!
So to trap the Bears, I would look for further penetration of support and more panic.
BUT THEN FIVE DAYS -- Per the following chart -- FROM TUESDAY (or roughly on SUNDAY) THE MIRACULOUS MIRACLE CURE WILL BE ANNOUNCED AND HIT THE MARKETS BY TOTAL SURPRISE ON NEXT MONDAY!!
And the following miracle cure will be the basis for a HUMONGOUSLY HUGE Rally to the upside! https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-coronavirus-french-study-hydroxychloroquine-covid-19?mod=article_inline
But, don't forget, a nascent COVID 19 with longer term ill effects is still lurking! Just because the immediate respiratory distress is quelled by this cocktail DOES NOT mean that the other deadly weapons of this viral monster have been disarmed: those other silent aspects of the COVID 19 man-made viral hand grenade will be arising in subsequent weeks and months in all of us and will undoubtedly initiate more medical horrors.
And, of course, there remains two Black Swans in the Markets; i.e. Credit Crisis and OIL.
And the $2 Trillion Bailout will have birthed two new Black Swans of a massively increased Federal Reserve Balance Sheet and a psychically damaged consumer >>>> who will be ever on the watch for the COVID MONSTER!!!
Hey Folks, Re: So, I'm now asked, 'what do the Fed's Actions & Words of this AM really Mean?' Well, it's really really quite simple. And I wrote about it on my Blog back on 3/19/20 So, here is the relevant quote form that post on 3/19: I learned fifty years ago in land far, far, far away from this WORLD: When your superiors repeatedly ---
and with sweaty brow and shaking hands and shaking knees --- tell you ,
"Don't Panic" that >>>> that is exactly when you should be
gravely and seriously concerned and >>> take suitable and
measured evasive actions that others may interpret as panic. Translation: you are always obligated to FIRST >>>> SAVE YOURSELF AND THOSE AROUND YOU!!
Well, you look at this and then tell me: Is the Sky STILL Falling?
So, well, has my fear been finally realized? Actually:
No, the Absolute WORST, is yet to come!!!!!!!!!!!!!
But --- for paying viewers only ---- there are some absolutely GREAT BUYS OUT THERE!!!!
Great Fortunes will be made in the very midst of this economic, spiritual and physical chaos >>> on THE UPSIDE for certain stocks in certain industries
Once again, I have been assaulted and accused of spreading dis-info?
Really?
Surprise, surprise Folks: I only get my information from Medical Journals; and I peruse nearly all of them.
So, let's start revealing what the Hoi polloi don't ever read; thus, they are in the blind about everything that is now endangering their very lives!!!!!!
I will will now attempt -- yet again -- to open the blinded eyes of some.
HERE WE GO:
Following is from an email I sent out to friends and former subscribers back on 3/15/20 "... Since I first raised alarms on 2/2/20: My concerns have been only
partially prompted by reading just the facts from Medical
Authorities: and here is the latest with the real mortality
numbers.
" ... On this basis, using WHO data on the cumulative number of
deaths to March 1, 2020, mortality rates would be 5·6% (95%
CI 5·4–5·8) for China and 15·2% (12·5–17·9) outside of China. "... A recent time-delay adjusted estimation indicates that
mortality rate of COVID-19 could be as high as 20% in Wuhan,
the epicentre of the outbreak. ..."
"If the public knew these numbers -- instead of what they hear on MSM
-- I believe that they would justifiably be alarmed.
"Why?
"The Furin-cleavage* on the protein spikes of this sucker
guarantee exceptionally easy transmissible infection between
humans >>> AND We don't have the hospital beds to meet
the demand. "That's the simple truth. "Be safe and vigilant. .."
Stay Tuned: I will soon come out and tell you guys what Furin-cleavage is and why it 100% validates my claim that the COVID 19 is man made.
There is much more to say --- that is not widely promulgated by the miserably polluted MSM --- because once a human being is interdicted with this man-made monster >>>> this bio-Weapon has many prongs of attack that will never cease over time.
For instance, it seeks and attaches to the ACES2 which is primarily in the lungs, heart and brain stem >>> BUT for males ACES2s are more heavily concentrated in their testicles and, therefore, COVID 19 will cause lesions and other destruction of the testicles and was very likely designed to sterilize interdicted males!
More later.
And Remember: only one power will affect the ultimate outcome for all of us >>> talking to your Creator and his Son and asking for their help.
And that is because there are three (3) Black Swans in our choppy and unpredictable seas: #1 Corona, #2 Liquidity/Dollar Crisis** and #3 Oil War.
So, in these times trading is OUT THE WINDOW: and I just learned that in my miscue on the 17th in which I was wrong and corrected myself.
So, in these times Stay the Course Mates >>> which is long-term shorts and openning more short positions in every bounce!
And it looks like one of those BOUNCES is developing right now as I write this @1046 hrs on 3/19/20
Thus a wonderful opportunity looks to be in process after which one may add to shorts; and this opportunity looks to be directly ahead of us.
That's it for now
Richard
** CNN just advised people to not take money out of the bank?
So, what should you do?
I learned fifty years ago in land far, far, far away from this WORLD: When your superiors repeatedly --- and with sweaty brow and shaking hands and shaking knees --- tell you , "Don't Panic" that >>>> that is exactly when you should be gravely and seriously concerned and >>> take suitable and measured evasive actions that others may interpret as panic.
Translation: you are always obligated to FIRST >>>> SAVE YOURSELF AND THOSE AROUND YOU!!
Re: 0930 My call yesterday to Traders* was obviously wrong because I completely forgot about OIL!!
I learned many years ago:
Like Every Sailor Knows: When you are wrong about the winds in the sea >> Don't cry >> Don't Fret >> Get Right >> Right Now!
So, when I made that call yesterday about the Cum'in Market Reaction to a Humongous $$$$ Helicopter $$$ Drop from the Guv'mint I made a trading decision based on an upcoming $$$$ Helicopter Drop and at that moment had forgotten -- completely --- about the 2nd Black Swan >>> Liquidity Crisis and the 3rd Black Swan >>> OIL!! So for Traders: If you took my wrong advice yesterday >>> then reverse those positions after things settle a bit today, but before 1 PM!! If you got in those shorts back on 2/2/20 when I advised you then you have lost no more than 10% overall in this mistake on my part!!
And that is because long term shorts do not suffer the extremes of premium explosion and contraction as do the shorter types; i.e. in options you should own nothing shorter in time than December 2020.
And for what may yet be coming on Corona and Liquidity Crisis and Oil, that is a tiny price to pay for making a lot of money!!
More Later Today after about 1:30 PM * All Investores in the developing disaster in this market >> keep all positions and don't trade for some time.
This Market is going to continue on a Crash Course in Market Overvaluation for those who have never seen one!
Re: these Mill, X, Y & Z generations will learn, what we of my generation learned fifty years ago >> in a land far, far away from our homes, and from our hearths, and from our loved ones, and from which many of us never returned to "the World!" And those of us who did return were damaged and never recovered.
The US Government is intent on sustaining economy and growth of same: I do NOT believe they will succeed.
However, and nonetheless, infusion of several Trillion $$$'s over short-term in most humongous Helicopter $$$ Drop ever made WILL boost all Stock Markets.
So, if you are a Trader >> Play the cum'in bounce: that's all prior post was intended to convey.
All others: remain out'ta Stock Market and maintain shorts, if you have them especially since those shorts should be long term; and if you haven't done that until now DO IT ON CUM'IN BOUNCE!!!.
Just announced in on-going News Conference: Huge Helicopter $$$$ Drop Cum'in = ???
This equals a heavenly sent gift to all of you who DID NOT LISTEN and did NOT sell and did NOT get short!!! You will now have a gift to do all the above!!
And of course, for those more adroit as Traders and Market Timers:
Right now 13:13Tuesday >>> For Traders ONLY: You should close your puts and shorts if purchased back on 2/2/20 and initiate only short-term LOOOONG positions like Call Options and other LOOOONGS!!
And then after their NATIONWIDE HELICOPTER $$$$ Drop rather immediately >>> short everything again after what I suspect will be a 4,000 pt. Bounce in Dow.
But this advice is JUST for those inclined to play this cum'in bounce >>>> because this sell-off is going to reassssert itself under the self-governing rules of the 300 Year Kondratieff Super Tsunami Contraction !!
Added - And Again - on a Monday: I need say nothing more at the moment other than:
World-Wide Liquidity Crisis as everyone (in the entire World) flees to US $$$'s *(and sell anything and everything they can to get US $$'s!!)
So, inevitably, the credit markets are binding up: examine spreads and futures if you doubt me!
*(And the Fed can NOT fix this problem with all their Helicopter Machinations of Billions and Billions in Overnight Repos' {that -- very strangely -- nobody is talking about}: as I implied in my last Blog it is in the hands of God {that God that they have ALL denied and ridiculed until now!!!}, as only Corona Good News will fix things and that Ain't Com'in Folks because the news on the Wuhan Corona Virus is going to get much worse.
If you doubt me on this, then you should go read the articles and coming studies on this monster in Virology Today or the Lancet {World's Premier Medical Journal} and others!!!!!!
In point of act, you should have been reading these all along and then, if you had, you wouldn't have been caught surprised by this new Viral Monster)
Other than everybody should be out'ta equities and have at least 5% in very long term shorts like Insurance Companies; e.g. options.
Never
short any stock directly: the PTB are intent on elevating this market
on the slightest pretext; and you can get killed like in (a beautiful thing as POTUS would say) 4,000 reflex rally that then immeditely peters out as the Coming Bad News Engulfs All Markets.
Very likely in the next days or week Congress and the Executive Branches will most probably announce a multi-Trillion $$$ Helicopter Drop All Over America.
Will it help?
Well, of course, when Trillions of AirBucks are given away there will undoubtedly be many joyful proclamations and much celebration, >>> BUT ...
NO, IT Will Not Help!
Can't anybody see the writing on the Wall since 2/2/20?
As Did King Beltasar of Babylon go**, so goes American Economy.
Mane, Thekal, Phares; and it was so!
Richard
** Daniel 5 Greek Septuagint 1 Baltasar the king made a great supper for his thousand nobles, and
[there was] wine before the thousand. 2 And Baltasar drinking gave
orders as he tasted the wine that they should bring the gold and silver
vessels, which Nabuchodonosor his father had brought forth from the
temple in Jerusalem; that the king, and his nobles, and his mistresses,
and his concubines, should drink out of them. 3 So the gold and silver
vessels were brought which [Nabuchodonosor] had taken out of the temple
of God in Jerusalem; and the king, and his nobles, and his mistresses,
and his concubines, drank out of them. 4 They drank wine, and praised
the gods of gold, and of silver, and of brass, and of iron, and of wood,
and of stone.
5 In the same hour came forth fingers of a man’s hand,
and wrote in front of the lamp on the plaster of the wall of the king’s
house: and the king saw the knuckles of the hand that wrote.
6 Then the
king’s countenance changed, and his thoughts troubled him, and the
joints of his loins were loosed, and his knees smote one another.
7 And
the king cried aloud to bring in the magicians, Chaldeans, [and]
soothsayers; and he said to the wise men of Babylon, Whosoever shall
read this writing, and make known to me the interpretation, shall be
clothed with scarlet, and [there shall be] a golden chain upon his neck,
and he shall be the third ruler in my kingdom.
(Daniel was called and Daniel told the King)
22 And thou accordingly, his son, O Baltasar, has not humbled thine
heart before God: knowest thou not all this? 23 And thou has been
exalted against the Lord God of heaven; and they have brought before
thee the vessels of his house, and thou, and thy nobles, and thy
mistresses, and thy concubines, have drunk wine out of them; and thou
has praised the gods of gold, and silver, and brass, and iron, and wood,
and stone, which see not, and which hear not, and know not: and the God
in whose hand are thy breath, and all thy ways has thou not glorified.
24 Therefore from his presence has been sent forth the knuckle of a
hand; and he has ordered the writing.
25 And this is the ordered
writing, Mane, Thekel, Phares. 26 This is the interpretation of the
sentence: Mane; God has measured thy kingdom, and finished it. 27
Thekel; it has been weighed in the balance, and found wanting.
Yes!!! And that is exactly what my prior two posts were written to clearly, and to forthrightly, and to plainly convey.
Another more fulsome post tonight!
And, quite obviously, as always there will be another huge Bailout of all the banks coming out of meeting in the White House that is currently ongoing!
So, there will be a rather substantial bounce with that announcement!
AND that will be your opportunity to SELL EVERYTHING, if you have anything left.
But if you heeded my --- February 2nd BLACK SWAN >>> ALERT! ALERT!! --- post you are NOT in that position; in fact, you should be in extremely profitable positions; and you must hold those short positions until the final BLOW OUT WAVE OF THIS 2nd WAVE!
If you haven't read my many Blogs or my since destroyed website then you don't yet know that this Corona Virus Contagion just set offthe 2nd Wave (CRASH) of the 300 year Kondratieff Economic Tsunami!! .
Re: With the action last week, I am still being asked 'What Now?'
The correct answer is so easy; and that people can't or won't admit it causes me to really think that people suffer from cognitive dissonance at times like these.
For over twelve years I have warned of the 2nd leg of the Super Kondratieff; and this is it.
This will in fact be part of the 300 year cycle that Kondratieff predicted in his final work but was never able to publish because Joseph Stalin had him executed first.
And Stalin ordered his execution because all Kondratieff's work destroyed the Marxist Economic Dialetic interpretation of economic history. So, as would Kondratieff reply, "to see forward >>> look backward:"
